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Obligatory 2024 Election thread


Ms. Spam
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Assuming the election, like, happens — everybody could get lucky and 2007 FT3 wipes civilization out or whatever — I do not think this is going to be the lowest turnout election in 20 years. It’s a math thing so I obviously don’t feel confident enough to bet on it or whatever. But I do not expect fewer than 122,349,000 votes or a voting-eligible population percentage of less than 58.0%.

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Well, I think the voter turnout is going to be overall less than 2020.  Like Tank said, there are republicans who are just sick of Trump, and Biden hasn't really done much of anything other than not be Trump.   For Trump, there will still be the MAGA voters, but I don't think they are as numerous as they were in 2020.   For Biden, I think he is going to loose a lot of minorities and young people because he just comes off as old and confused and not in the game for them, and he hasn't really done anything to distinguish himself.   The only people that seem remotely energized to vote are people on both sides of the abortion debate, and I think women who are pro-choice will particularly be driven to the poles given the SCOTUS decision on Roe V Wade.  

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The Roe decision has been a huge win for the Democrats, they've won every single election it's been on the ballot since, even in deep red states. It's still a huge motivator for a lot of voters, so I agree there will be an uptick there. I also think, that as we get closer to the election, polls are going to get tighter and might even show Biden leading.

So far out from an election, especially with two generally disliked candidates, there are a lot of reliable voters on both sides who are polling for third party candidates and as undecideds, as a way to "send a message" to whichever side they always vote. In the end, most of these people end up voting for the party they always vote for, even if they don't like that particular candidate. 1992 with Ross Perot was an outlier, and he didn't even end up getting a single electoral vote anyway. RFK Jr ain't getting shit.

I'm still hesitantly optimistic Biden gets a second term. There's so much time between now and November, Trump is currently in one of his four upcoming trials (with any luck, at least one more will actually go to trial before election day, but who knows). An uncountable number of things could happen by then.

With any luck the fucker will drop dead of a heart attack first.

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I’ve felt for a long time that President Donald John Trump is going to win reelection. It’s certainly the funniest outcome! But I think it’s possible that everyone’s going to have to settle for the second funniest outcome.

My reasons for thinking President Donald John Trump will lose are threefold.

1) Money. He’s not raising enough of it! And what he does get, well, a huge chunk of it has to go towards his legal costs. So he’s doubly handicapped when it comes to money. And, like, basically, some of the richest people in America don’t think he’s going to win. If they did they’d be shoving money his way! He openly asked the oil people to give him money now in exchange for his favour after he wins and they still didn’t bite!

2) Polls. He’s been the presumptive nominee for a while now and still hasn’t sufficiently dipped the incumbent’s numbers. I’d expect we’d see a bigger drop from President Joseph Robinette Biden and a bigger jump from President Donald John Trump if the challenger had a really solid chance. The most recent numbers aren’t that different from the ones from the fall. If it remains this close all the way to the end I expect President Joseph Robinette Biden to get at least a little boost — the debates, an October surprise, maybe President Donald John Trump’s pants fall down in court revealing polka-dotted or little red hearts underwear — and that’ll put him over the top.

3) Neither Mitch McConnell nor Mike Johnson appear to think President Donald John Trump’s going to win. Why would Senator Mitch McConnell give up the chance to be majority leader if he expected there to be a Republican in the Oval Office soon? Why would Congressman Mike Johnson put funds for Ukraine up for a vote — a move that may well take the Speaker’s gavel away from him — if he expected being Speaker of the House to be valuable soon?

Yeah. I don’t know. It’s still possible that the funniest possible outcome happens, of course, but if it does I assume it’ll be more of a squeaker than ‘16. Which would make it even funnier, yeah.

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  • 3 weeks later...
36 minutes ago, Darth Krawlie said:

Motherfucker is guilty on all charges hahahaha

now I need to know about his other three cases

Damn you. Beat me to it, and used the exact same verbiage.

Sentencing set for July 11.

Now we begin the endless appeals process.

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I'm signed up at parler and you should SEE the panic memos Trump is sending lately. The most recent is simply a gif of Biden smiling and Trump fumed how it was Biden smirking at his conviction and how you donating money to him would help. "HE THINKS THIS IS FUNNY - SICK SICK SICK!" To be fair, Biden is sending me shit about how donating money right now will save the world, too. Not nearly as funny, though.

 

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