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Electoral College Predictions


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1 hour ago, Tank said:

I know several people that were upper middle class here, then moved out there to live like kinds. Our money goes a long way out there... except Sedona. Holy crap is that place expensive.

Yeah, and AZ natives like me get priced out of owning a home, too.  :(

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If we talk enough shit about her she might manifest.

Amanda

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40 minutes ago, Cerina said:

They keep doing that to Austin as well. They even brought a damn In & Out with them. 

You're welcome.

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CNN just called Michigan for Joe Biden. The Electoral College stands at 253 Biden, 213 Trump. (270 is needed to win the EC ). Add in Arizona and Biden's EC count is 264, 6 votes away. Nevada's got 6, Arizona's got 11.

I gotta admit I was disappointed with some of the decisions for local elections. Was hoping to make Texas blue.

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For once, everything went great locally for me.  Increased education spending, Marc Kelly, AZ actually went blue for the election.  I know some aren't calling it, but AZ looks like a done deal for Biden.

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Guys, I just really hope Nate Silver is right or very very close to being right. 

 

Where The Race Stands For Now

We’re taking a bit of a pause on the live blog until we get more results from Arizona and Georgia — expected around 9 p.m. ET and potentially — in Arizona, anyway — again at 12:30 a.m. ET.

This initial overview from me got a bit buried earlier after Michigan was projected for Biden, so I wanted to leave you with this in the meantime. Some of the numbers are a little outdated as of now, but only by an hour or so.

Here’s where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshot’s needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I’d call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances aren’t zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That gap seems like a tall order for Biden to close, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say Toss-up, but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re distributed fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as they are in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be counted) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration breakdown of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday was: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. The state has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve looked into this more than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you do get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden, but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This one’s a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent, or about 7,500 votes. But what’s remaining should be pretty good for him. It’s all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or that are still coming in — in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they’re postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Biden’s 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the “apparent winner,” per ABC News.

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Nate Silver is definitely right, but don’t read too much into what he’s saying. He isn’t making predictions, but statistical analysis. That’s why he’s using terms like Likely or Leans. 
 

But, having said that, I think that the Likely outcomes will happen, and Biden will at least squeak out a win.

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According to the AP, there’s a conspiracy theory on Facebook and Twitter that Sharpies were distributed for voting in Arizona in Republican heavy areas because the system can’t read Sharpie.

Also per the AP, this is complete bull being spread on social media

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Looks like Fulton county in GA may have goofed up too as they were supposed to stop counting but some kept on counting without the GOP overseers that are supposed to make it fair. SIGH. It's like corona virus for elections. Do what you are supposed to do and it's over. Keep on doing things that are wrong and it goes on FOREVER.

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There will be recounts and lawsuits for sure, though.  Trump will fight it every step of the way.  Ironic in 2016 he was all about "the will of the people,"  and 2020 is now "sue to throw out the will of the people."

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At least two Trump lawsuits have been tossed today. Recounts aren’t going to change anything - we actually did learn a lot from 2000. It may be close enough in Georgia that a recount could change it, but I don’t think Georgia will be important to the end result. 

Biden is going to be the next president, barring anything tragic happening.

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