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Electoral College Predictions


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If we talk enough shit about her she might manifest.

Amanda

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1 hour ago, Destiny Skywalker said:

Oh, it will absolutely be a fight, no matter how badly he loses. We will be dealing with this until Inauguration Day. The shitshow won't be over Tuesday night. It will just be beginning.

Like, when those trucks tried to run the campaign bus off the roads and all of the local authorities are like, "not my jurisdiction".  If that had been a black male, you would get the national fucking guard called.  

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1 hour ago, Cerina said:

I'm not afraid of middle class suburban professionals. They speak only from a place of privilege and don't even recognize that. They're going to expect someone else to solve these "problems". There's a reason for the Karen stereotype - the most they can do is call the cops and call for the manager. They'll get loud and scary, but it's all bark and no bite. 

They’re celebrating the middle class professionals who pointed guns at protesters and are buying weapons. They’re not going to make the first move, but they’re paranoid, angry, and armed.

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2 hours ago, Fozzie said:

My biggest fear is what comes after the election more than the results. I feel confident that Trump will lose, and also that he won’t be gracious. I’m seeing people refer to it as a war, and the other side as “mortal enemies”. And these aren’t militia types but middle class suburban professionals. One of them is a former youth minister. It’s crazy and scary.

 

 

Yeah that has gone through my mind a lot, too.  Unlike most presidents who step aside and let the sitting president govern, I have a feeling Trump exits office (either by loss of election, or even it he wins and leaves 4 years from now) will run around the country whipping up people into a frenzy, and stirring shit everywhere.   He will be unavoidable for comment.  I just hope that the press has the foresight to simply ignore him and not give him a platform.  He can tweet all he wants, but when he is John Q Asshole again, I hope the media resists the temptation of report on him for the LULZ.

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Like I said before-- both sides have already said they won't accept a defeat. I'm first fir a decisive Biden that is too big to claim fraud realistically. Beyond that, I'd actually feel safer with a decisive Trump win over another result that splits the popular and electoral votes. If there's room for confusion and uncertainty, that's what will bring unrest.

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It's funny to look at the west coast and realize all the blue comes from Seattle, Portland, Eugene, SF, and LA. These rest of it is technically red.

Why is is that urban areas tend to be democrats, and rural areas Republican? For most of my life I just assumed that rural folk were dumb and Jesusy. But I'm too old, smart, and tolerant to pretend like that's true. So why is it?

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8 hours ago, Darth Krawlie said:

I mean I like that map, but the time to call things toss-ups is past. I'm ready for real predictions on these swing states.

I think her point is Biden doesn't need the toss-up states. He gets to 270 if he just wins the "lean blue" states. At least I hope so.

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On 11/2/2020 at 6:23 AM, Tank said:

Like I said before-- both sides have already said they won't accept a defeat. I'm first fir a decisive Biden that is too big to claim fraud realistically. Beyond that, I'd actually feel safer with a decisive Trump win over another result that splits the popular and electoral votes. If there's room for confusion and uncertainty, that's what will bring unrest.

I QUOTED THE WRONG POST BY TANK. I was meant to quote the one where he was questioning urban versus rural voters and why they chose what they do.

 

My stab in the dark is that cities are generally ethnically, socially, and economically diverse areas of huge population density. In order for that to work cohesively people have to function more.. diplomatically, or liberally I guess? If you're exposed to more cultures, ethnicities and people of different social economic groups you have to become more tolerant/accepting? Or at least your exposed to far more varied people and realities that many more people have to become far more accepting in their mindset to get by. And is that a more Democrat mindset?

Where as (total assumption here) rural parts are more ethnically/culturally homogeneous made up of working class people or wealthy landowners who aren't as receptive to change and haven't had to become as tolerant as urban citizens as it isn't integral to their daily survival/function? Add to it the rural types have the nostalgia or connection (in their minds) to frontier America, guns and freedom because historically guns were instrumental to survival? 

Of course I don't know shit, but that would be my guess?

 

Rural people in the UK tend to vote Conservative party, and it's definitely for reasons of cultural/ethnic homogeneity and wealthy land owners wanting their lifestyles to be protected. So, voting Conservative makes total sense

Edited by Odine
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prediction.jpg.c7fc54f7f6e46f956ff836da6fc8012e.jpg

Here's mine, which is essentially a copy and paste of a not-538 forecast with guesses for the toss-ups (left Nebraska as a toss-up because cba to look up polls for each district)

Probably too optimistic

 

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Does anyone know how big a lead has to have before a state is "called" in favor of one opponent? Also, I am shocked, but relieved that all the news outlets seem to actually be using the same maps and information. I'm shocked CNN's and Fox's maps are the same. I suppose the more hard data you get the less room you have to play favorites.

That said, the level of districts reporting in greatly varies.

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4 minutes ago, Tank said:

Does anyone know how big a lead has to have before a state is "called" in favor of one opponent? Also, I am shocked, but relieved that all the news outlets seem to actually be using the same maps and information. I'm shocked CNN's and Fox's maps are the same. I suppose the more hard data you get the less room you have to play favorites.

That said, the level of districts reporting in greatly varies.

In retrospect, except for AZ, MI, and WI, the map literally is a replay of 2016.  That is what is most surprising to me, and yet, so obvious that it would be, it shouldn't be surprising at all.  WI and MI were razor thin the last time, and Trump's non-stop shitting on McCain and 70,000 Californians moving to AZ flipped AZ.

 

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13 minutes ago, Tank said:

You're welcome....?

Sadly, I think it has a lot to do with the fires in recent years.  I mean, I'll welcome the voters, but too bad that was the reason many had to move here. 

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I know several people that were upper middle class here, then moved out there to live like kinds. Our money goes a long way out there... except Sedona. Holy crap is that place expensive.

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34 minutes ago, Tank said:

Does anyone know how big a lead has to have before a state is "called" in favor of one opponent? Also, I am shocked, but relieved that all the news outlets seem to actually be using the same maps and information. I'm shocked CNN's and Fox's maps are the same. I suppose the more hard data you get the less room you have to play favorites.

That said, the level of districts reporting in greatly varies.

There's no set percentage, it's based on the number of votes outstanding, the difference between the two, candidates, and where the outstanding votes are coming from. It's harder right now, because we don't have all the granular knowledge about where votes are coming from due to mail-in and early voting. So we can't say that the votes are coming from a heavily Republican area, which would make Trump a big winner in PA. 

Basically it's an incredibly well educated guess, where they look at a lot of factors. It's why swing states are harder to call than California. 

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1 hour ago, Tank said:

I know several people that were upper middle class here, then moved out there to live like kinds. Our money goes a long way out there... except Sedona. Holy crap is that place expensive.

They keep doing that to Austin as well. They even brought a damn In & Out with them. 

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I'm trying to find the secret enclave of people I can buy a reasonable house and have amenities without paying through the nose in Texas that hasn't been found by a californian that isn't brownwood. 

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