Darth Krawlie Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 This is my official electoral college prediction for this year. I can only do it as if there was a normal year and there won't be any major shenanigans. It's too hard to predict all the various bullshit that's bound to happen, so I'm treating this as a pre-2016 election. Here is my dream map, what could happen if every state I think has even a 1% chance of going blue does so. Here is my nightmare map, where every state I think has at least a 1% chance of going red does so: I might come back and give Senate predictions later, but this is what I got right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms. Spam Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 DAMN YOU TEXAS, DAMN YOU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacen123 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I'm not feeling up to making picks myself, but I have a former student who did undergrad research with me on developing methods for aggregating polls and making predictions and who is now working on creating better models for her dissertation. Right now her model is suggesting an average of 359 electoral votes for Biden on a many simulations with a 95% credible interval of 290-416. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Krawlie Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Well if she or anyone else wants to post a prediction I'd really like to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R.CAllen Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I'm kind of slow on the uptake but I just put it together that if the weather's real bad on Election Day this could actually be a landslide. absolute best case scenario : terrible weather all across the United States delivers Biden an absolute landslide in the electoral college, 413-125 Biden win Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa and Maine. no, no, absolute best possible case scenario : 462 - 76. The President wins Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virgina + part of Nebraska. He narrowly loses Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Utah, Maine, Montana, Alaska + most of Nebraska. middling best case scenario : 375-163. Biden wins Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, and Maine. realistically best case scenario : 300-238. The President wins every state he did in '16 except for Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. I don't think any of that's going to happen and even if it does America's 45th President will still be in office on January 21, 2021 regardless but it'd still be kinda funny. "In the Bible, Mr. President, rain is a blessing!" (P.S. Sorry if the numbers don't add up or some of the states are missing!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathras Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 This is how I personally think the election will shake out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathras Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 So, more or less, Krawlie's (and my) nightmare map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 I’m that map, Biden still wins. But Trump will carry a majority of states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathras Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Ah, I had the colors reversed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Krawlie Posted October 31, 2020 Author Share Posted October 31, 2020 Right now I'm really missing Rebecca and her always astute electoral analysis. Would love for her to pop back in but I think that ship has sailed, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tank Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, Darth Krawlie said: Right now I'm really missing Rebecca and her always astute electoral analysis. Would love for her to pop back in but I think that ship has sailed, unfortunately. If we talk enough shit about her she might manifest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerina Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Quick! Someone set out a bottle of vodka and a line of blow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathras Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 11 hours ago, Tank said: If we talk enough shit about her she might manifest. That, or stare at a mirror and say her name 5 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacen123 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Which one of her names, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Jacen123 said: Which one of her names, though? Amanda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathras Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Definitely not scientific, and it assumes the polls for following states are accurate. Some may be out of date. But, what I did for this map, is if the election were held today, if Trump was ahead in a state, he got that state. Same with Biden. Polls I used: https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2020-presidential-election-polls/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Krawlie Posted November 1, 2020 Author Share Posted November 1, 2020 Today I feel my worst case scenario is too optimistic and it'll be a 450-88 blowout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 538 has Trump at a 10% chance of winning, which means he wins 1 in 10 simulations. That still gives him a chance at winning, but not a good one. 2016 was a lot of people trusting polls that were within, or close to, the margin of error, being overconfident, and the worst two candidates in modern history. Now Trump is an incredibly unpopular incumbent going up against a guy who they insult by saying he’ll listen to scientists and and is like Mr. Rogers The potential for Trump to win is mostly a result of the doom and gloom from Democrats discouraging voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Krawlie Posted November 1, 2020 Author Share Posted November 1, 2020 Fortunately turnout is extremely high almost everywhere, so my doom and gloom isn't going to ruin it for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Ender Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I am honestly already having panic attacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerina Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I'm not having full blown panic attacks, but I just ordered groceries for the week and when they got here I realized that there's exactly one meal plan in there and the rest is 80% junk food. We rarely buy junk food, and when we do it's usually like small bags of goldfish and granola bars for lunches when we anticipate being out of the house frequently. My 12 year old is excited. My 4 year old is confused. My husband is leery. And I'm probably going to gain 10 lbs by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 My biggest fear is what comes after the election more than the results. I feel confident that Trump will lose, and also that he won’t be gracious. I’m seeing people refer to it as a war, and the other side as “mortal enemies”. And these aren’t militia types but middle class suburban professionals. One of them is a former youth minister. It’s crazy and scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerina Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I'm not afraid of middle class suburban professionals. They speak only from a place of privilege and don't even recognize that. They're going to expect someone else to solve these "problems". There's a reason for the Karen stereotype - the most they can do is call the cops and call for the manager. They'll get loud and scary, but it's all bark and no bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destiny Skywalker Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Oh, it will absolutely be a fight, no matter how badly he loses. We will be dealing with this until Inauguration Day. The shitshow won't be over Tuesday night. It will just be beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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