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Electoral College Predictions


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This is my official electoral college prediction for this year. I can only do it as if there was a normal year and there won't be any major shenanigans. It's too hard to predict all the various bullshit that's bound to happen, so I'm treating this as a pre-2016 election.

O6DzE

 

Here is my dream map, what could happen if every state I think has even a 1% chance of going blue does so.

7lKEd

 

Here is my nightmare map, where every state I think has at least a 1% chance of going red does so:

Q2gEN

 

I might come back and give Senate predictions later, but this is what I got right now.

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If we talk enough shit about her she might manifest.

Amanda

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I'm not feeling up to making picks myself, but I have a former student who did undergrad research with me on developing methods for aggregating polls and making predictions and who is now working on creating better models for her dissertation.    Right now her model is suggesting an average of 359 electoral votes for Biden on a many simulations with a 95% credible interval of 290-416.

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I'm kind of slow on the uptake but I just put it together that if the weather's real bad on Election Day this could actually be a landslide.

 

absolute best case scenario : terrible weather all across the United States delivers Biden an absolute landslide in the electoral college, 413-125

 

Biden win Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa and Maine.

 

no, no, absolute best possible case scenario : 462 - 76. The President wins Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virgina + part of Nebraska. He narrowly loses Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Utah, Maine, Montana, Alaska + most of Nebraska.

 

middling best case scenario :

 

375-163. Biden wins Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, and Maine.

 

realistically best case scenario :

 

300-238. The President wins every state he did in '16 except for Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio.

 

I don't think any of that's going to happen and even if it does America's 45th President will still be in office on January 21, 2021 regardless but it'd still be kinda funny. "In the Bible, Mr. President, rain is a blessing!"

 

(P.S. Sorry if the numbers don't add up or some of the states are missing!)

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11 minutes ago, Darth Krawlie said:

Right now I'm really missing Rebecca and her always astute electoral analysis. Would love for her to pop back in but I think that ship has sailed, unfortunately.

If we talk enough shit about her she might manifest.

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538 has Trump at a 10% chance of winning, which means he wins 1 in 10 simulations. That still gives him a chance at winning, but not a good one. 2016 was a lot of people trusting polls that were within, or close to, the margin of error, being overconfident, and the worst two candidates in modern history. Now Trump is an incredibly unpopular incumbent going up against a guy who they insult by saying he’ll listen to scientists and and is like Mr. Rogers

The potential for Trump to win is mostly a result of the doom and gloom from Democrats discouraging voters.

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I'm not having full blown panic attacks, but I just ordered groceries for the week and when they got here I realized that there's exactly one meal plan in there and the rest is 80% junk food. :green: We rarely buy junk food, and when we do it's usually like small bags of goldfish and granola bars for lunches when we anticipate being out of the house frequently. My 12 year old is excited. My 4 year old is confused. My husband is leery. And I'm probably going to gain 10 lbs by Tuesday. 

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My biggest fear is what comes after the election more than the results. I feel confident that Trump will lose, and also that he won’t be gracious. I’m seeing people refer to it as a war, and the other side as “mortal enemies”. And these aren’t militia types but middle class suburban professionals. One of them is a former youth minister. It’s crazy and scary.

 

 

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I'm not afraid of middle class suburban professionals. They speak only from a place of privilege and don't even recognize that. They're going to expect someone else to solve these "problems". There's a reason for the Karen stereotype - the most they can do is call the cops and call for the manager. They'll get loud and scary, but it's all bark and no bite. 

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