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You got some of those virusesses?


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2 things:

1. Deaths usually lag by 2 weeks. And unfortunately in Texas, hospitals are starting to get overwhelmed so if it becomes a capacity issue we may see a spike in death rate.

2. We have gotten better at treating COVID. We had nothing in March and now we have best practices and at least a limited body of knowledge for how to treat this disease. Before it was trial by fire, which is not a great way to practice medicine.

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Oxygen is normal-low, steroids seem to be helping. As long as I can stay normal for several hours, including while walking around my room, I'll be out today or tomorrow. That also pends additional tes

My doctor had to put in a prior authorization to get my insurance to pay for it. They say I have to use alien DNA first, but my doctor says thats a waste of time.

I know all about it. I started to post a new thread about all of it, just to get all the stuff out of my head. Maybe I still will - Im home, but quarantined from everyone so I finally have that quaran

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I think there are a bunch of factors not being widely considered--

 

- I think the virus is at the stage where it is mutating and becoming weaker, so you have a lot more easily treatable cases.

 

- In general, the big headline in the press is NUMBER OF CASES, not number of serious cases that require hospitalizations and actual deaths. I'm not trying to sound like a conspiracy theorist, and I am pro mask when around people, but the death rates are not on the same curve as people catching it as it was before, you're right.

 

- I also think there is not a standard universal method of declaring a coronavirus death. If you got an 85 year old man who already had emphysema, and he dies once contracting covid, what's the cause of death? Was it the covid, or did it exacerbate his pre-existing condition, and THAT'S what killed him?

 

- Similarly, covid can trigger things like pneumonia, which one do you list as the official death? There's not enough data being shown on covid-related deaths.

 

- In general, there's not a lot of data at all on who is dying when it comes to pre-existing conditions and age. We hear a lot about who is in danger, and that those are a lot of the cases, but those aren't being broken out as data points.

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I've also heard that the average person being hospitalized right now is younger than before and, therefore, has a better chance of fighting it off from the get-go.

I'm glad that the death rate is stagnating and declining. But I still recognize that getting this stupid disease is definitely NOT something we need to take lightly. Even the survivors are likely facing bankruptcy-level hospital bills and a possible lifetime of other health issues.

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Yeah, people recently contracting it are younger. This is fascinating; watching this in real time! I remember in early March watching someone on TV talk about the stats and he cautioned everyone to draw few conclusions, saying it may be years after the virus is active to be able to see all the info clearly-and for the reasons Seth stated, mostly.

 

I'm doing a little research and it seems every big deal new illness/virus has always had detractors-people who didn't believe it was real, for many different reasons. Covidiots aren't really new, just the virus

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And we still don't have anyone in China - where oddly a lot of this stuff comes from - to investigate and keep up with the next pandemic thanks to Trump. An early warning system with actual plans in place to prevent this from overwhelming the US would be great. There's a swine flu coming next!

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I think there are a bunch of factors not being widely considered--

 

- I think the virus is at the stage where it is mutating and becoming weaker, so you have a lot more easily treatable cases.

 

- In general, the big headline in the press is NUMBER OF CASES, not number of serious cases that require hospitalizations and actual deaths. I'm not trying to sound like a conspiracy theorist, and I am pro mask when around people, but the death rates are not on the same curve as people catching it as it was before, you're right.

 

- I also think there is not a standard universal method of declaring a coronavirus death. If you got an 85 year old man who already had emphysema, and he dies once contracting covid, what's the cause of death? Was it the covid, or did it exacerbate his pre-existing condition, and THAT'S what killed him?

 

- Similarly, covid can trigger things like pneumonia, which one do you list as the official death? There's not enough data being shown on covid-related deaths.

 

- In general, there's not a lot of data at all on who is dying when it comes to pre-existing conditions and age. We hear a lot about who is in danger, and that those are a lot of the cases, but those aren't being broken out as data points.

That is a lucid, intelligent, well-thought out post. Thank you Mr. Gambini.
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Lol. It was a compliment. You acknowledged the unknowns. Not many do that. There are a lot of people that cling to facts that have since changed since this started.

 

Or you didn't like My Cousin Vinny.

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Something I don't see people talking about isn't just the deaths from COVID-19, but the excess deaths from heathcare systems worldwide. I was reading newly released research that said this number was 25% worldwide. Of course now I forgot where I came across it, so I pulled up CDC numbers and I see that it is around 10% in America

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

As a side, I wonder why Jan 18 was so high.

 

Edit: It looks like that was a bad year for the flu.

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Three things that I think apply to the death count:

 

1) Younger people who are less likely to die are getting it - this is widely covered in the media

 

2) People are testing much sooner. Not too long ago you werent getting tested until you were getting close to death and going to the hospital, so there was a two week (or less) lag of being super sick and then dying, but these people were sick a lot longer than that

 

3) Cases are more spread out. It was primarily in NYC where things were going poorly. Things are less concentrated now.

 

As for whether its weakening, the science is still out. It seems like a certain number of well respected doctors think it is, and a certain number of well respected doctors think it isnt. Since Im not a doctor, and Im not doing the research, Im not going to take a stance, other than to say that until we know its better we shouldnt assume it is.

 

My viewpoint on this is biased, because Im high risk - this thing is probably going to kill me if I get it.

 

And speaking of death, official cause of death is always difficult and is a judgment call more than anything else. Thats why its more accurate to say COVID-19 related deaths. In many cases it isnt the disease itself, but the disease creating circumstances where the person will die from an underlying condition that wouldnt have killed them so quickly in the absence of it.

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Also, are we counting the young people who stroke out, and that syndrome that's affecting little kids?

 

I don't know if anyone else has been following this one, you have to deep dive into the news to find the stories but I've read many from trustworthy sources like NPR - some young people's immune systems are fighting this well enough that they're asymptomatic, but their systems are so taxed to stay asymptomatic that they're causing strokes in Xers and Millennials, and little kids can go into inflammatory overload. It's rare, but happens enough that, again, I've read multiple stories from multiple sources.

 

That seems like something that may be left out of the death toll.

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I now see news comments from people locally, at least, that they don't even believe tests that come back positive. While false positives are definitely a thing (in any type of diagnostic test), I just feel so defeated seeing the attitudes people are espousing about this.

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Since we have first hand experience, I'm staying the eff home for the most part. My husband is under 40 and very healthy, and I've never seen him sicker in the 19 years we've been together. I want nothing more than for my kids to be back in school in the fall so they can get the socialization (and in my son's case, behavioral resources) and education they need. But we almost exposed my Girl Scout troop to it, do you know how heartbroken I would be if I had gotten one of them sick or their parents? I am letting my daughter see her best friends about every 2 weeks and taking her to a socially distanced soccer practice with no more than 5 girls in a group and they still have to stay apart (believe it or not, they're actually doing a pretty good job with it, other than the asshole parents on the sidelines refusing to wear masks) twice a week and that is it. I haven't been running with friends or had people over for drinks or any of that. Its lonely and it sucks. Meanwhile I see people having parties with 20 kids (plus their parents) at their lake house this weekend, not a single mask in sight. We are never going to beat this thing at this rate. I am already pretty sure soccer will shut down in the fall and ski lessons won't happen, either.

 

We also still haven't figured out if antibodies mean anything. There are a few instances of people catching it twice (although mostly in extreme environments, like a ship).

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I was illegally terminated because of the virus when I went out sick at the end of March because of an ill timed case of chronic bronchitis and self quarantined after. Actually fought me on the self quarantining and I got a notice of termination dating it back to when I went out sick. Unemployment took three days all together for 8 weeks of back UI and PUA because I explained the exact circumstance to the woman over the phone. NY has it's perks. I've just been writing a book and keeping healthy and laughing at the mental deficiency of some of the states in the country.

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And speaking of death, official cause of death is always difficult and is a judgment call more than anything else. Thats why its more accurate to say COVID-19 related deaths. In many cases it isnt the disease itself, but the disease creating circumstances where the person will die from an underlying condition that wouldnt have killed them so quickly in the absence of it.

Just from my own point of view, it's scarily similar to an AIDS related case where it may not be the virus that kills the person but will accelerate a condition that will. I agree with you. What's just more scary is that there's never too careful with this thing and the tragic cases of people who were doing their best social distancing still catching it and dying. Pre-diabetic and chronic bronchitis, not risking exposure at all.

 

Be well.

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My brothers girlfriend told me yesterday that shes friends with a nurse, and that nurse predicts Michigan is about two weeks away from lockdown part 2. Our ICUs are near capacity again already.

 

So thats just awesome.

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Were probably approaching a county-wide shutdown, but not state-wide. Franklin County, where I live, is currently the closest to level 4 of the 4 tier system they just created. Were not in real danger of ICU beds at this point, but our hospital admissions are going up.

 

Ive read that some doctors think the virus is weakening, but overall the consensus is that the data doesnt support that hypothesis at this time. Who knows what tomorrow holds, though. This thing has really only been a problem for 6 months, and we dont have much in the way of good information. The scientists are still disputing exactly how its spread, and were still finding out what it does. We have pretty much no clue why it works so differently in some people, in the ways Icy described.

 

Theres also the antibody issue - we dont know if it is meaningful, and equally important, for how long. There are a lot of people out there who have recovered who have lung damage, so who knows what happens if they dont have any type of long term immunity. If the antibodies last for two months, which is a legitimate possibility, people who recovered in the spring could easily get it again and die in the summer.

 

We also are comparing apples to oranges in terms of current cases / hospitalizations / deaths for at least a couple of well documented reasons:

 

1) The current caseload includes a lot of younger people, who are less likely to die.

 

2) Were testing earlier - it used to be that you only got tested if you were in bad enough shape. So a lot of people werent getting tested until they were either in the hospital or close to in. Weve also identified new symptoms that are tied to less severe cases, like loss of smell and taste. People are now getting tested with those symptoms, when they werent before.

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I'm not impressed with the ICU bed occupancy reporting, by national news anyway. Local outlets don't seem to use the scare tactics as much.

 

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/07/central-floridas-largest-hospitals-out-of-icu-beds-but-say-they-can-scale-up-if-covid-19-demand-increases/

 

"In mid-March, as patient volumes declined and fewer beds were needed, Orlando Health began consolidating units to reduce the number of beds including ICU beds that were staffed and in operation. The current operational bed count is what we report to AHCA and what appears on their website. That number is not Orlando Healths total bed capacity. Across all of our operations, we have nearly 3,300 beds. Nearly 200 of those are ICU beds and we have the capacity to surge up to 500 ICU beds if it becomes necessary"

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I never got the ICU bed hysteria. There aren't that many ICU beds in hospitals in the first place. Tampa General Hospital has a little over 1000 total beds. 32 are ICU beds.

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While I was in Arizona some dumb lady said she doesn't wear the mask because she'll end up with tan lines. San Antonio is at 50% for ICU beds.

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