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The Last Jedi Box Office


85 replies to this topic

#26
Poe Dameron

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Yeah I have no desire to see it again in the theater. And this is the first Star Wars movie I have felt that way with. It's not bad, it's just...meh. 

Funny, I had no plans to see this again.  Heck, I still haven't gotten around to watching Rogue One all the way through again.  But I find myself eager to go back and study this one some more.



#27
DANA-kin Skywalker

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I have to watch it a third time in theaters, and not because I actually want to. My aunt is flying in for the holidays, and we always see at least one movie in theaters, almost a tradition. My aunt is a star wars fan and hasn't seen TLJ. Sooooo...looks like Disney gets to stick it's hands in my pockets once more with this.

#28
Poe Dameron

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Monday:  $21.6 million

Domestic Total:  $241,565,957

World Total:  $494,565,957

 

TLJ almost performed on par with TFA, managing 89% of its opening weekend.  But this Monday number is only 54% of TFA's first Monday.  Indeed, it's almost $10 million off of TFA's second Monday.  I mentioned that the lack of a uniform school holiday was going to hurt the film's numbers, and here's the proof.  But it will partially make up a little on the back end.

 

I'm not making excuses.  If you'll look at Rogue One last year, its 1st Monday was only $17.6 million and its 2nd Monday bounced all the way up to $32.1 million once the kids got out for the holiday.  That's a 2nd Monday almost $1 million stronger than The Force Awakens.  Plus, Christmas tends to give theaters a bit of a boost, so TLJ will almost certainly end with a $30 million+ Monday next week.

 

Unfortunately, Christmas Eve is a bad day for box office.  So TLJ's going to take a hit next weekend while everyone's doing last-minute shopping and greeting guests on Sunday.



#29
DANA-kin Skywalker

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Anyone doing any last-minute shopping next weekend is in deep **** because Christmas Eve is this weekend.

#30
Poe Dameron

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Both the same at the time of posting.



#31
Poe Dameron

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Tuesday:  $20,254,189

Domestic total:  $261,820,146

Worldwide total:  $274,800,000



#32
The Choc

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I think it's doing what you'd expect. Kids arent off here until Friday. That could give it a slight boost Thursday evening and obviously Friday could act more like a Saturday. It should enter the weekend around 300 mil or so. Then after that kids are off for 9 or 10 days. 



#33
Poe Dameron

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I'd only correct that to 17-18 days off for the kids.  The movie will perform like a beast next week on weekdays, take a big 60%+ hit New Year's week weekdays, and then fall off a cliff starting January 8th.

 

But by then, it'll already be well over $600 million.



#34
The Choc

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17-18 days off? Kids here are off starting the 22nd and go back on January 2. That;s 11 days off. Is it a whole nother week elsewhere in the country? 



#35
Metropolis

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17-18 days off? Kids here are off starting the 22nd and go back on January 2. That;s 11 days off. Is it a whole nother week elsewhere in the country? 

If you add the weekend days it's 16 days here.

#36
Poe Dameron

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Could be where we're getting crossed up.  I'm including the weekends.  And, at least where I am, we always got an extra day on the front end or back end.



#37
Poe Dameron

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Ooh, I've been slacking on this thread:

 

Wednesday: $16,889,863

Thursday: $17,892,34

Friday: $24,680,000

 

Domestic Total: $321,282,356

World Total: $635,282,356

 

That's a rather significant drop for Friday.  The Force Awakens had double that take on its first Friday (though it was Christmas).  With the expected bad Sunday for Christmas eve, it doesn't look like TLJ will come even close to $100 million this weekend.  $70 million is more likely.



#38
The Choc

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Yeah, probably gonna come in below expectations. Disney will survive. Plus Star Wars box office is kinda like NFL ratings, only disappointing when compared to itself. 



#39
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I actually dont see what is so woke or new in either, especially TLJ. None of the concepts are anything that has not been touched on in fiction or science fiction since forever. The woke aspect of war and economics was a huge theme in the 60s, for instance. Granted it could be NBCing It, if you havent seen it then its new to you, but this is as much an art house a film as The Phantom Menace was technically an independent movie.


TLJ was a pretty good season 1 episode of TNG.
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#40
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Don't you mean TLO?



#41
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ELO

#42
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As a novice box office guy it feels like it did very well on Tuesday, making 27 mil, slightly more than it did on XMas and not far from The Force Awakens 2nd Tuesday. Now being the day right after XMas it's possible more people are off on Tuesday than will be for the rest of the week. 



#43
Poe Dameron

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Sheesh, I really am slacking.

 

Weekend: $71,565,498 (-67.5%)

4-day Weekend:  $99,025,055

 

Friday: $24,763,084

Saturday: $29,172,415

Sunday: $17,629,999

Monday: $27,459,557

Tuesday: $27,734,356

 

Domestic Total: $423,361,767

Worldwide Total: $420,200,000

 

Okay, some analysis here:

 

1.  The weekend came in a bit under expectations.  We knew it was going to be rough with the Christmas shopping box office downturn, but, still the drop was a few percentage points below where I'd figured (closer to 60%).  I've noticed a few folks have taken to forming the narrative that there's a massive backlash underway because a drop of 67.5% is indeed high, but that's the internet for you.  They don't understand the way box office works, so a simple explanation where everyone agrees with them is the only one considered.  We'll see if that narrative sticks.

 

2.  The Tuesday number is much more in line with expectations, perhaps even exceeding it by a bit.  Sunday will be rough with New Year's Eve, but the rest of the weekend should have a decent hold.



#44
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I think the basic truth is this: People want to compare it to the 950 or whatever TFA made. However that was an anomaly, that movie just went crazy. No one expected it to go near that. This movie is performing like you'd expect the sequel would for what TFA was thought to be before it came out. If that makes sense. It'll be at 500 mil or close enough by the end of the weekend. In fact it could be well over since its at I believe 423 now. If Wednesday and Thursday are solid days compared to Tuesday it could be 470 or so heading into the weekend. So it could be a good amount over 500 by the end of Monday. 



#45
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True enough.  If the internet were around in 1980 it would have been all, "ZOMG, The Empire Strikes Back barely made half what Star Wars did.  Fans hate the bummer ending."

 

Anyone remember when it was an open question whether The Force Awakens would pass Avatar?



#46
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I didn't think it would. This movie is going to make 600 mil, which is a monster hit by any standard. 



#47
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Well like I thought Tuesday was somewhat inflated by a few more people being off, Wednesday it went right around 22 mil, which pushes it to 445 mil. I see no reason it won't do a number near that on Thursday so it should be around 465 heading into the weekend. Box Office Mojo is projecting a 57 mil 3 day weekend which would put it at 522 mil with a holiday Monday. You'd expect it to be in the mid 530's, maybe 540 coming out of the long weekend. Rogue One made about another 100 mil after New Years, so I'd think this movie should do at least that. So you figure maybe comes in around 640 or so total. It should end up top 5 all time domestic and could be top 3 with some luck. 



#48
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Well, the movie is up to an estimated 517 mil through Sunday. I'd expect Monday to be another good day, probably putting it around 530-535. Could be one more half decent day before the world goes back to normal. So maybe 540-545 when that happens. Rogue One was at 440 at the same point and ended up at 532, so it made another 92 mil from that point on. I'd think The Last Jedi would expect something similar so when it's all said and done the movie should come in around 635 maybe? I think that makes sense. Ofcourse the movie has been ahead of Rogue One to this point so squeezing out a bit more is not out of the question. It has a shot to pass Jurrassic World and Titanic which are both in the 650's. 



#49
The Choc

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Screw it Ill get into some of the things I'd change.

 

First, I like nearly all the humor in the movie, but I would change the opening bit between Poe and Hux. I'd rather the movie open with something that sets the tone for the movie and then the comedy after it cuts through that tone. 

 

Secondly I'd slightly change the Rey-Luke dynamic. Not right from the start but I'd have had them have a scene or two where they really bonded and we feel a closeness between them. Where we see Luke coming back to himself. Then Rey hears Kylo's version of the past and confronts him. Luke tells her the truth but she still leaves. Would see Luke kinda re-shattered. 

 

The other stuff is all very small like have Maz not be looking like she is playing lazer tag when they talk to her. 



#50
Robin

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Id drop that Luke closed himself off from the Force and make it so he was the one reaching out to Rey in TFA, not that the lightsaber was magical (yeah yeah the force was magical not literally the saber). Luke be like, this is nothing and toss, what I was showing you was important.

Also that Luke was the one linking Rey to Kylo, not just that but establish via Rey and Kylo (from Kylo) that Luke has never stopped talking to him... and Kylos opinion is that Luke is hiding like the coward he is. This lines up with Lukes struggle and convictions in the final battle of RotJ and does not tip the hat to the climax fight for this film. Lukes craziness when he meets Rey would then be a test of her like Yoda to him.

If Luke was always reaching out to Kylo then that also layers Kylos actions in TFA, he is not just struggling, hes being haunted by turning back via Luke. So he murders his own father not just as an attempt to end his internal struggle but in an attempt to make Luke stop talking to him.

Id also have shown that Kylo really f-ed Luke up in the flashback... lopped off the entire mechanical hand arm, I dunno something with more punch for Kylos rage at being confronted by Luke. This then is layered for Luke in both being ashamed of how he confronted Ben, getting owned by him in the process and thus hiding because of fearing his own dark impluse and possibly compounding his failure if he hunted Kylo and then was defeated physically prior to passing on his knowledge to another hope.

Im not saying thats better, just what I thought should be given what the film was and what TFA set up.



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