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Rogue One Box Office


Poe Dameron
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I think it's hard to find any movies to really compare it to. There have been no other holiday releases that opened anywhere near Rogue One. TFA opening was vastly higher and the next highest was much lower. No movie has opened within 70 mil of Rogue One in either direction. That's kinda crazy. Makes finding a movie to compare it to nearly impossible.

 

I wouldn't expect Monday to really correlate well to the rest of the week though. Most people were off today, not just kids. While starting tomorrow it will be basically just kids.

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I think it's hard to find any movies to really compare it to.

 

Well, once the kids go back to school, it shouldn't be all that difficult. There's no reason to think that it won't have drops comparable to your typical blockbuster. Maybe a little bit better. The Force Awakens itself didn't behave all that atypically for a mega-blockbuster itself other than those bonkers weekday totals during Christmas and New Years.

 

So far, Finding Dory has actually been a pretty good measuring stick other than today. Check the two out side-by-side at Box Office Mojo: Finding Dory and Rogue One

 

If you notice, Finding Dory is mildly outpacing Rogue One most days, but the strong opening day and Christmas bonuses have pushed Rogue One out ahead by a bit. And once kids go back to school, Finding Dory should erode at Rogue One's lead again. The question is whether Rogue One will build up enough of a buffer to stay ahead for Finding Dory's predictably stronger legs.

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Tuesday: $22.5 million

Total Domestic: $340.6 million

 

So, yeah, Rogue One has gone into overdrive these last couple of days. Tuesday was the 7th largest Tuesday ever, bouncing 28% above what it did on its first Tuesday in release. It made almost exactly as much as it did the previous Friday. Which doesn't even make sense. Movies never do as well on a Tuesday as on a Friday without a reason, and I can't think of one here. I'm pretty sure all schools had Friday off, all the big competition had opened earlier in the week, and December 23 isn't traditionally a bad day at the box office either.

 

Needless to say, this has made the prediction I made Sunday morning look silly. It's going to basically more than double what I was expecting for this Mon-Thurs run. Even if it taps the brakes on Wednesday-Thursday, It'll be above $375 million before it even gets to another 4-day holiday weekend. A holiday weekend that would only need to average its Tuesday take to get a bounce over its second weekend. And New Year's Eve is not as bad a day at the box office as Christmas Eve.

 

Passing Finding Dory and $500 million is now a foregone conclusion. Challenging The Dark Knight's $534.9 million for 6th all-time is has gone from the crazy to rather likely range depending on whether it can continue defying gravity.

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Well Rogue One made 22.5 on Tuesday which is about 5 mil more than last Tuesday. That obviously bodes well for the next few days. If that trend keeps up on Wednesday and Thursday then you can roughly give it another 40 mil for those 2 days. That would place the movie around 380 mil heading into the weekend. The movie will likely pass 400, or close enough, on Friday. The it still has 3 more days when basically everyone is off. Could be at nearly 450 after this weekend. Which makes 500 mil a certainty I'd say.

 

Sorry, didn't see you posted basically the same thing.

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Only compared to Summer releases. The thing with this movie is that no one has really released a monster opening movie like this in December. Because this movie opened so big it was hard to know if it would behave like the typical December movie that opens somewhat smaller and then has huge legs. Or if cause of the opening it would act like a summer movie. The answer seems to be, for this movie at least, that Disney will get somewhat the best of both worlds. A nice opening followed by big legs. I think we may still be underestimating the movie to be honest, myself included.

 

Like I said in an earlier post. If you give the movie a scenerio where it's opening corresponds to 30% of it's total gross it would end up at 511 mil. If you give it 28% (which is what the first 2 Hobbit movies did you get roughly 550 mil. If the movie has strong legs it could get up near 600. I think right now it's probably headed for around 550.

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Slowed down a bit the last 2 days, so it's at 375 heading into the weekend rather than the 380 I figured. Been some bad weather in northeast, so that could be a reason. Either way I'd expect it to do 75 or so over the 4 day weekend which will put it at 450 or so when we wake up Tuesday morning.

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Thanks to you guys for caring enough about this stuff to share. I find it fascinating, but not enough to actually look stuff up or actually track things.

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Well this weekend was below expectations, coming in around 50 rather than 60. So it's at 440 after Monday as opposed to 450. XMas and New Years eve falling on Saturday hurt it's weekends a bit for sure. Still though, I'd expect it to reach 500 mil for sure.

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I'm tellin' ya, Rogue One's performance has just been weird to track.

 

It will easily reach $500 million. With school still out for about half the country, it'll have some extra juice and should outperform The Force Awakens until the weekend. It'll likely cross $500 million sometime next week.

 

Side note: Buena Vista (Disney) reached the $3 billion mark for the year on the last day, finishing with approximately $3,000,800,000 for the year. The first studio to ever do it, and they only released 13 movies all year. Between their in-house animation, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel, and live-action remakes, they have five separate properties that are basically a license to print money.

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Friday: $6,054,000
Domestic Total: $461,355,354

 

So, after having an eye-poppingly amazing weekday run last week, Rogue One has come back down to Earth. The students still out of school did not translate to as much extra box office as I had expected causing the numbers week-to-week numbers to drop about 75% for Tues-Thurs. Friday didn't do much better, dropping 66%.

 

Friday was also the first day that Rogue One was not the #1 movie. Hidden Figures is doing a bit better than expected in what is its first day of wide release took the top spot. There's a pretty decent chance that Sing wins Saturday/Sunday and takes the weekend.

 

Rogue One didn't continue to defy gravity, but it will still finish the weekend likely above $475 million and will easily work its way above the $500 million mark.

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Forgot to mention, Rogue One broke into the Top 10 of all-time domestic list, passing A New Hope and Avengers: Age of Ultron. It should settle in at the #7 slot all-time, and could still challenge for #6. Going back to Driver's posts on the first page, I hope that's good enough for Disney can consider it a success. If it's a disappointment when only 5 or 6 movies have ever done better, they set their expectations too high.

 

Little bit of trivia: Star Wars, for the second time, holds 4 separate movies on the all-time Top 10 list. This is the second time it's accomplished this, the first time being for almost a year following The Phantom Menace release when all four of the films were on the list until The Empire Strikes Back was knocked out by The Sixth Sense almost a year later. Each series is also represented. ANH representing the Original Trilogy, TPM representing the Prequels, TFA representing the Sequel Trilogy, and Rogue One representing the Anthologies.

 

Think of it. A New Hope is celebrating it's 40th anniversary and is still clinging to a spot in the Top 10 of all-time. The only movie that did so for longer was Gone With the Wind, which managed to keep its place for 46 years from its release 1939 all the way until the waning days of 1985 when Back to the Future sent it to #11.

 

Sadly, that run will almost certainly end this year. Even if it survives challenges from the likes of Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Despicable Me 3, which it well may, Episode VIII will release at the end of the year and will almost certainly take its place on the list.

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The next question is what is the over/under for Episode VIII? 700 mil? 750 mil?

 

Sounds right, though I'm tempted to take the under. Wouldn't shock me if it made $800 million again.

 

Here's a question I was asking last year: Do we think the Han Solo movie will get pushed back to December and continue the successful Star Wars Christmas? As usual, a lot of it depends on the status of Avatar 2. To my knowledge they still haven't set a date for that movie. And given the ridiculous amount of pre-production for it, I'm going to guess that they're going to take their time in post-production too. So, I rather doubt we'll be seeing Avatar 2 before 2019, maybe even 2020.

 

And then if Disney wants to keep Christmas (which they should), they can be the ones bullying their way into keeping that date and force Cameron into a summer premier. Because Star Wars has been established as the big dog again and while an anthology movie might be vulnerable, Episode IX is a guaranteed smash hit that no sane studio would want to try and stand against. It's like when Batman v. Superman thought about going up against Civil War and Warner Bros. flinched.

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Weekend Estimates just came through.

 

Weekend Total: $21,972,000

Domestic Total: $477,273,354

Worldwide Total: $914,373,354

 

Rogue One looks like it took the weekend in a squeaker (bad weather is being blamed for the disappointing figures across the board), with an estimated $172k more than Hidden Figures, but we can't say for sure until we get the actuals on Monday (though Sunday estimates have gotten scary accurate recently). Pretty good foreign take as well this weekend. I wonder if it will pass Civil War to become the #1 movie worldwide in 2016.

 

As a side note, this makes it very likely that Sing will never reach #1. Which means that My Big Fat Greek Wedding's longtime record for Top Grossing Movie to Never Hit #1 is going to fall.

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Sadly, that run will almost certainly end this year. Even if it survives challenges from the likes of Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Despicable Me 3, which it well may, Episode VIII will release at the end of the year and will almost certainly take its place on the list.

If they re-released A New Hope this year as part of a 40 year Anniversary, do you think that could potentially keep it hanging to the top 10 a bit longer? Or doesn't have any chance of making enough to keep it in the top 10? (Just curious, I doubt they'd do it anyway).

 

Adding to that - if Fox wanted to, could they release a 40th Anniversary of ANH, or would they still need some form of go ahead from Lucasfilm and Disney?

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If they re-released A New Hope this year as part of a 40 year Anniversary, do you think that could potentially keep it hanging to the top 10 a bit longer?

 

A bit. With a $75 million run, which isn't crazy talk with the right promotion, it could jump back over The Phantom Menace, Rogue One, and The Dark Knight and stick around for another few years. Heck, if they showed a remastered de-specialized edition, I could see $100 million+ on a re-release. Even today, $550 million movies don't grown on trees.

 

Side-note: Do you realize that as of a couple months ago, we now live in a world where the Special Editions have spent more time as the official Star Wars movies than the original cuts ever did?

 

If Disney held the rights, they may have put a re-release onto the schedule. Why not? Disney has almost no product they're releasing this year. By my count, they've only got 8 movies on their whole schedule. That would leave plenty of room for a February, April, or even late-summer release.

 

But Fox holding the rights and making a huge deal out of Star Wars' 40th Anniversary would essentially be promoting their rival's biggest movie. No, they wouldn't need Disney's permission, it's their movie and they can do anything they want with it. It'd net them a quick buck, but they won't do it because they'd essentially be working to promote Episode VIII and all future Star Wars movies. Well, Fox has two movies scheduled for Christmas next year in The Greatest Showman (Hugh Jackman's P.T. Barnum musical) and Ferdinand (animated movie about Ferdinand the Bull) and, even if I suspect one of them will be moved, they won't want to help Episode VIII suck all the oxygen out of the box office. BTW, a P.T. Barnum musical starring Hugh Jackman sounds awesome on paper.

 

So, sadly, synergy is working against an Anniversary re-release. Though I'm surprised Disney itself isn't drumming up more interest in the occasion.

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Posting the Weekend Estimates.

 

Weekend Total: $13,360,000

4-Day Weekend Total: $17,128,000

Domestic Total: $502,219,734
Worldwide Total: $983,319,734

 

Rogue One achieved a few milestones this weekend. On Friday, it passed Finding Dory to become the #1 movie of 2016 and #7 movie on the domestic all-time list. Additionally, it broke onto the $500 million club, tying for Avatar's mark of 32 days to reach that mark. Incidentally, Avatar just passed Rogue One on their head-to-head match-up on Monday.

 

Looking ahead, Rogue One's weekend drop actually wasn't too bad at 39.4%. The last two weekend drops have only been about 2% off of TFA's drops. It won't have the late run legs of TFA and should drop under $1 million a day starting tomorrow, but shouldn't have to work especially hard to earn another $32.7 million and pass The Dark Knight's $534.9 million to snuggle into the #6 domestic all-time.

 

I'm not doing a full analysis, but I'd eyeball it's final total at around $545 million from here.

 

It should also pass the $1 billion mark worldwide sometime this week. Currently it's about $170 million behind Civil War for the top spot worldwide in 2016. Not sure if that's reachable since worldwide totals are difficult to predict and tend to slowly soak in over time.

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I was surprised when I got my digital copy ANH to see the Fox intro was gone, replaced just by the Lucasfilm logo. I know Disney has the IP, but this means home video distribution is all theirs too. Even George shared those with Fox.

 

FX did their usual OT marathon over the holiday, I'm guess they retained the TV/cable rights, or at least the right to show them on their own channels.

 

So if all they have is theaterical distribution to their name you'd think they'd use it. I guess they could have decided to sit on them in protest, but they dealt with Disney on some of it.

 

Their bean counters will have to decide if they would make or lose money with an anniversary release. It might be possible that they only have the pre SE version theatrically, which they could use to their advantage.

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Earlier someone mentioned how it's impressive that Star Wars now occupies 4 of the top 10 spaces of all time. However I think it's even more impressive that it now holds 5 of the top 18 in All Time Adjusted:

 

2-Star Wars

11-The Force Awakens

13-The Empire Strikes Back

16-Return of the Jedi

18-The Phantom Menace

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