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RNC Cleveland Rocks Convention


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I gotta say, this has easily been the most entertaining convention I've seen in my lifetime. I can't remember one with so much ridiculous sh-t going down...

 

Best (non disaster) part so far was probably Giuliani's speech. I don't know where he found the energy- it was like seeing the aging, washed up old rock star that's vanished out of the public eye, re-surface out of nowhere for a comeback tour and knock it out of the park.

He was ****ing terrifying! He SCREAMED about people COMING TO KILL YOU

 

Stupidity on parade. GOOD GAWD.

...and will find its bookend of idiotic behavior at the Dem convention.

 

 

I'm hoping for a line-up of speakers even more pathetic than Chachi and WHO?

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What do you think this nights speech will do for points for Trump in the polls?

Maybe a minor bump, but I don't expect any serious movement one way or another.

 

 

What do you think about Pence?

The first real mis-step of Trump's campaign.

 

It won't cost Trump any voters or anything (it's not Palin level bad), but Trump had a real opportunity here to expand his coalition and excite independents. Instead, he declined that option and went with what he was advised was the "safe pick." I understand that the thinking goes along the lines of- Trump had to unify with the evangelicals. But here's the thing, evangelicals weren't going to vote for Clinton anyway. So what if some of them stay home? They are heavily concentrated in states that Trump was already winning.

 

Instead, Trump could've sent a strong signal to independents by going outside the box, such as with Gen. Flynn, or doubling down on the scorched earth approach, by picking a Christie or Gingrich. I understand that Flynn was a bit of an unknown, Ivanka's husband had personal issues with Christie, and the fear was Gingrich would be uncontrollable. I still would've rolled the dice with Gingrich.

 

Sure, Gingrich is a bit of a throwback to the 90s, but he's shown he can keep himself relevant by coming up with new ideas, even if some of them are kinda kooky. Pence, in some ways, is actually more of a throwback- he's a straight Bush-era style neo-con bible thumper, and that type of conservatism isn't really popular anymore (at least, in the states Trump already isn't winning). Plus, Gingrich is a capable debater.

 

On top of that, Pence's ideology is basically the opposite of Trump's on every major issue. This presents a couple of problems- first, it raises the question of how loyal Pence would actually be if Trump won. Second, it invites questions over how sincere Trump really is about his big issues.

 

So yeah, bad pick. Not fatal or anything, but a serious missed opportunity.

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Guest El Chalupacabra

I'm almost 100% going to protest vote for Gary Johnson as a FU to both the Trump and Clinton supporters. No illusion that he will even get 10% of the vote, but I can't stomach voting either Clinton or Trump.

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The media's gonna have to hop into overdrive to prevent it, and they already are.

 

God I can't wait to see people's heads explode when he finally wins. Time to move to Canada, I guess. Or just bitch about it.

 

Good stuff.

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Hillary is going to win WA anyway, because she has a D after her name. I'm going to throw Gary Johnson a vote because I want more than 2 choices long-term. I'm not completely on love with the Libertarians, they love guns a little too much. But I think Johnson actually seems like a viable choice.

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Probably writing in Bernie cuz **** it, vote with your heart. Looking at the electoral map I don't see a single realistic oath for a Trump victory anyway.

 

There is a path. Right now (obviously, things are in flux and could change), but right now, it all falls on PA. If Trump is polling ahead in PA, he probably wins.

 

The GOP has polled very close in PA the past few elections but always came up just short in the Philly suburbs. In '04, Bush lost PA by 2 points. Romney lost it by about 5. Right now it's averaging about Clinton +3.

 

At least in theory, Trump is the perfect candidate for PA- a northeastern nationalist/populist with a trade message that doesn't give a f-ck about the social issues (e.g. gay marriage etc). If he picks up PA, then it's curtains for Clinton- if Trump doesn't get it... then yeah, difficult to find a path, since Trump has an uphill battle in VA and CO.

 

This is, of course, assuming Trump holds OH and FL. If that doesn't happen, then none of this matters.

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Guest El Chalupacabra

The media's gonna have to hop into overdrive to prevent it, and they already are.

 

God I can't wait to see people's heads explode when he finally wins. Time to move to Canada, I guess. Or just bitch about it.

 

Good stuff.

I know you want the guy to win, but as I see it, Clinton will beat him. Probably at a margin similar to 2012 between Obama and Romney is the best Trump can hope for, but I think it will be more decisive than that.

 

And I say that as someone with no dog in the fight. I hate both of them.

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The media's gonna have to hop into overdrive to prevent it, and they already are.

 

God I can't wait to see people's heads explode when he finally wins. Time to move to Canada, I guess. Or just bitch about it.

 

Good stuff.

I know you want the guy to win, but as I see it, Clinton will beat him. Probably at a margin similar to 2012 between Obama and Romney is the best Trump can hope for, but I think it will be more decisive than that.

 

And I say that as someone with no dog in the fight. I hate both of them.

 

From the same stand point as you, but I'm still pretty convinced that Trump is going to win.

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Guest El Chalupacabra

We'll know soon enough. But, my total ass-pull, guesstimation non-scientific assessment is that in order for Trump to win, he would have to win pretty much every state Bush did in 2004. Trouble is, even as fatigued as the country is of Obama, given this election, I think it still tips to Hillary's favor. Trump will certainly take GA, maybe MO, and probably TX, though I think TX won't be a cakewalk, since it is a border state and given his rhetoric. OH & FL are totally in play, and they are statistical (within the margin of error), if not literal, ties. I don't see Trump carrying CA, IL,MI, NJ, NY, and PA. I DON'T see Trump carrying NV, CO, IA, MN, or NM, either. I think those states are a lot easier for Hillary to win than for Trump, and without those states, Trump can't win.

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a quick poll in Pennsylvania has Hillary 51% Trump 40% right now. The rest was "OTHER". Some people just want to watch the world burn.

 

I think you're pretty much right about the biggest states in play being OH and FL. My shameful state hopefully has changed enough that Hillary gets more votes in areas like Austin and San Antonio and some parts of Houston but I see the rest of the state going Trump.

 

First debates in September guys!

 

BEST YEAR EVER!

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HAHA! even though it's from talking points website I still found it amusing that Trump came away from his RNC crowning with LESS GOP voters willing to vote for him:

 

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/convention-first-less-likely-vote-trump

 

Also his weird feud with a Muslim Mom and Dad who lost a son in war is possibly his worst idea yet. Colbert said last night that instead of apologizing and moving on Trump will have a more bizarre and really crazy event happen like a one upmanship thing.

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