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I agree with everything you're saying except in the case of Star Wars. It's too big. It's not losing a dollar to anything "shiny and new"

 

Of course there's no way to prove this either way but it's interesting to think about.

Agreed - I think Poe is also right that Avatar 2 would take a bite out of Star Wars profits, but nowhere near the amount that Star Wars would eat into Avatar's. If it was a Marvel or DC movie I think they'd risk the competition and possibly come out better (just on Cameron's name alone) but Star Wars is just too big. You'll still have a huge portion of people that will see it multiple times along with any new movie that's out. . .as sad as it is, I remember seeing Episode III at the cinema 5 times, and even then you had Batman Begins out, War of the Worlds, Hitchhikers etc. And that was a prequel. (sure that's just me, but I highly doubt I was the only one)

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I think the bigger question is does anyone care?

But there are a LOT of people who are going to choose between two movies. I certainly wouldn't see both, and even if it was a movie that I'm interested in, like say Winter Soldier vs Star Wars, I'd s

If you're excited enough about a movie you make it happen. Case in point: ANH. If there are 2 movies at the same time you're that excited about, you make it happen.

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Which is why I think they will shoehorn Vader into Rogue One just so they can market the hell out of it with him as the focal point.

I wouldn't be surprised if they have the Emperor make a cameo, as well.

I think Avatar 2 would of been a bigger threat a couple of years ago, but I think Cameron has left it too long. If he had brought it out in 2012 or 2013 it could of been a juggernaut franchise, now people barely seem to care.

Maybe, but then again, that was said about about Aliens and Terminator 2, and they were sequels that took about as long to make, too.

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