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The Force Awakens Box Office


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Well the thing Star Wars has going for it more than most other franchises is that Star Wars fans go to see it multiple times. I'm calling it now: TFA will top $1Billion domestic.

 

While not completely crazy talk, that's still a long shot. After next week the holidays will be over and kids will be going back to school. It will probably see a massive drop in its week-to-week totals starting January 4. In order to reach $1 billion, it would take exceptionally strong legs. Maybe not at the level of Titanic, which was just box office freak, but it would have to be somewhere between the drops seen by Avatar and the Lord of the Rings movies to get there. Not impossible, but not likely. The positive outlook is that this is the right time of year, traditionally, for finding movies like that.

Edited by Poe Dameron
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fuck the inflated list. Back then movies was all people had. So much more competition now. It's apples and oranges.

It's doing so well, I wonder if they'll make more

Only 245 million? That's what Disney gets for targeting the 'casuals'. Time to reinstate the old EU

 

He also got Disney stock out of the deal.

Aaah, didn't know that. Makes more sense now.

 

 

Seriously though, do you think Lucas actually got a bit ripped off? It doesn't seem like it's going to take Disney long to get that $4 billion investement back with these kinda numbers. He could of made more just producing and releasing them himself if he did it over a couple of years. (Glad he didn't, but still)

 

Ripped off? I wish someone would rip me off with 4 billion...
Ripped if say you could of gotten 10 billion potentially instead. But yeah, can't disagree with you either lol.
At some point you want to stay away from Obama's radar.
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Update: $49.3 million on Friday. $440.4 million total.

 

Slightly below the $53 million prediction. The Force Awakens becomes the fastest movie to $400 million in only 8 days (previous record 10). The mildly disappointing number (still a non-opening weekend Friday record by almost $18 million) puts in doubt the potential to reach $500 million in 9 days (previous record 17 days), but will certainly get there before noon Sunday and will likely end up around $550 million at the end of the weekend.

 

Looking forward, I would estimate that The Force Awakens passes $700 million on January 3 after 17 days in theaters. And passes Avatar's $760 million for #1 on the domestic list on January 10 after only 24 days in theaters.

 

Estimates above $900 million for its total run are now quite defensible. I plugged in week-to-week totals that modestly underperformed Fellowship of the Ring's drops and came away with a number above $940 million. And if the totals within range of the psychological barrier of $1 billion, look for Disney to re-issue the movie shortly before the DVD drop in order to get it over the hump.

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Avatar benefited from being the first to truly cash in on the 3-D gimmick. Which makes it even less respectable in my eyes since I HATE 3-D and Avatar's success led to the direct creation of a thousand effects aimed directly at looking cool in 3-D. Which doesn't impress me at all since I refuse to watch a movie with those stupid glasses on my head.

 

As far as being a movie goes, I think its actual merits were almost immediately forgotten. It's rather remarkable how shallowly Avatar impacted the popular culture given its status as the leader in domestic box office. This is the biggest movie of all-time, but try and remember the last time you saw anyone wearing a t-shirt about it even in an ironic sense. It rarely gets mentioned for good or ill around the internet. When's the last time you heard a joke that referenced the movie?

 

Compared to genuine culturally iconic franchises like Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, Godfather, Indiana Jones, Rocky, Jaws, E.T., Back to the Future, Star Trek, Ghostbusters, Titanic, Terminator, Jurassic Park, Die Hard, Alien, any number of Disney or Pixar animated films, any number of comic book movies, Shrek, Transformers, Ninja Turtles, Hunger Games, Forrest Gump, James Bond, Captain Jack of Pirates of the Caribbean, crap I can go on all night. Avatar can't hold a candle to the mindshare that any of these franchises achieved among the American public. That all these movies continue to contribute to our shared popular culture.

 

Avatar's success, in the end, can't even be credited to it striking a chord. It just happened to hit a marketing gimmick whose time had come. And since it was the first blockbuster particularly created to take advantage of that gimmick, it was rewarded handsomely.

 

Anyway, it really isn't a matter of if, but when and by how much The Force Awakens will pass Avatar. The Force Awakens can cool down significantly and start dropping as quickly as the average blockbuster and it would still easily pass Avatar in a matter of weeks.

Edited by Poe Dameron
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I HATE 3-D and Avatar's success led to the direct creation of a thousand effects aimed directly at looking cool in 3-D. Which doesn't impress me at all since I refuse to watch a movie with those stupid glasses on my head.

Twinsies!!

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Weekend estimates are in. $153.5 million Fri-Sun. $544.6 million total.

 

If these numbers hold, this is about 12% below the predicted totals. While not terrible in any sense, it is closer to the standard box office drops. So the film is showing the first signs that it will not defy gravity. Still, a drop of only 38% (20% if you take away the Thursday screenings that were included in the Friday total) for a blockbuster is very strong and this was good enough for the 10th biggest weekend ever and smashed the old 2nd weekend record by 44%.

 

I'll have to revise my prediction of passing $700 million and Avatar by a few days each.

 

The Force Awakens is now the 5th biggest movie of all-time on the Domestic chart, having passed The Phantom Menace and A New Hope as the largest earner of the series.

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Even adjusted for inflation is not entirely reliable because of differing entertainment options are different times. I mean Gone With the Wind is #1 all time adjusted for inflation but in 1939 there was no television. So not many options.

 

However, the adjusted list is a far better indicator than just the raw numbers. The Force Awakens will likely end up 12th and 8th all time when adjusted for inflation.

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The Force Awakens is currently #50 on the adjusted for inflation chart. It will eventually pass The Empire Strikes Back and 101 Dalmatians for #11. Depending on how it does, it can reasonably expect to climb as high as #9 as it passes Snow White and The Exorcist.

 

Still pretty impressive. Only Titanic has cracked the top 10 of this list in the past 30 years.

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Plus, without too much analysis it seems like it has somewhat slightly underperformed projections but then turns around and overperforms estimates. This weekends total is obviously just an estimate as Sunday hasn't happened yet. Obviously its not going to like go crazy over 153 but it could top it by a bit. Although it could also be lower by a bit too. Alot of people will be travelling today.

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Just some extremely quick, rudimentary analysis. Jurrassic World had 402 mil through 10 days on it's way to 652 mil. So its 10 day total was roughly 61% of it's total gross. The Force Awakens is at 544 mil through 10 days, if that represented 62% of it's total gross it would win up at about 877 mil domestically.

 

There are 2 things to consider. First is that TFA is a better recieved movie than JW and could hold on and have better legs. However what could cancel that out is that kids are going to go back to school. Whereas JW had the good fortune of kids being out of school as it winded down it's run.

 

What seems for certain is this movie is heading for 825+ million, and thats likely conservative. I don't think we will have a great idea of how it will all play out until kids go back to school next week.

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Monday's take: $31,362,029: Total Domestic Gross: $571,420,943

 

The Friday-Sunday actuals came in a few million below expectations. But $31 million was well above the 45% drop I had expected on its 2nd Monday puts it right back on track to pull above $700 million by Sunday. In fact, it pushes up the date that I'd estimate it passes Avatar all the way up to Wednesday, January 6. Only 20 days into its run (numbers assumed are 23% drops week-to-week this week Tuesday-Thursday, 30% drop over the weekend, and a 50% drop next week) as it seeks to break the $800 million barrier by Saturday, January 9.

 

This is the 2nd biggest Monday ever, behind only the mark The Force Awakens set last week.

 

Something to look out for: Will The Force Awakens become the first movie to make over $100 million on three different weekends? January 1 is generally a very good holiday and it would need to drop no more than 33%. Usually a tough number to match, but, if the Monday figure is any indication, it should be able to do it. My estimated 30% drop to lands it at $104 million.

 

Also, I'll note that if you factor in a straight week-to-week 40% drop beyond the January 4-10 week predictions, The Force Awakens would gross $992 million domestic total...

 

Not about to make that prediction, but that is indeed what the numbers come out to be.

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I agree that it most likely will happen. However, it seems The Force Awakens, for as amazing as its weekend numbers are, is truly a beast when it comes to its unprecedented weekday haul. The weekend numbers are performing like a typical blockbuster out-sized blockbusters.

 

However, the weekday numbers are not dropping as much as they should. Typically, a huge blockbuster drops 55%+ between Sunday and Monday. A 70%+ drop is not atypical. The Force Awakens is only dropping half of that. To compare it to the other top 5 movies this years

 

The Force Awakens' Sunday/Monday drop:

 

Week 1: 34%

Week 2: 27%

 

Jurassic World:

 

Week 1: 55%

Week 2: 70%

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron:

 

Week 1: 74%

Week 2: 76%

 

Inside Out:

 

Week 1: 58%

Week 2: 57%

 

Furious 7:

 

Week 1: 58%

Week 2: 76%

 

This is how you get ridiculous results such as The Force Awakens now accounting for the top 2 Mondays ever, but only 3rd and 5th highest Saturdays. Among other things, this means that we can't expect quite the same level of weekend boost for The Force Awakens that a normal movie gets. Indeed, The Force Awakens actually disappointed from its potential weekend earnings last week specifically because the weekday numbers inflated predictions.

 

So, yes, $100 million is still very much likely. But I don't believe it will clear it with the ease that a $31 million Monday might indicate.

Edited by Poe Dameron
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Thought you might be interested, TFA has now become the highest grossing film for 2015 in Australia. It now has AUD60.9mill to Jurrassic Worlds AUD52mill. Further more it has hurdled Titanic to become the 2nd highest grossing film of all time Down Under. With nearly a month left of our summer school holidays, TFA has a good chance of overtaking Avatars whopping AUD115 mill. Go Aussie Star Wars fans!!!

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Thanks for the update Djo. The Force Awakens seems to be doing fantastic in the English speaking world.

 

Update: Thursday (Estimate): $22,931,000. Domestic total: $651,965,583

 

This puts The Force Awakens just $108,542,042 shy of Avatar for #1 on the domestic list. Box Office Mojo's prediction is the same as the one I made earlier this week: A 30% drop for $104.4 million. However, if The Force Awakens mildly outperforms this prediction and drops by 27.3%, it will pass Avatar Sunday night.

 

Additionally, it should pass $700 million on Saturday, its 16th day. Avatar took, 72 days or 4.5x as long.

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