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The Force Awakens Box Office


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Over the weekend, The Force Awakens smashed the domestic opening weekend record with $247.9 million. The previous record was Jurassic World with $208 million. Impressive enough, but movies that open big tend to be front-loaded and quickly lose momentum after the first weekend.

 

Just noticed today that The Force Awakens pulled in another $40 million on Monday to bring the 4-day total to $288 million. The previous Monday record was only $27 million. It managed to smash this record without the benefit of a holiday (though most kids are off for Christmas this week).

 

That's a rather auspicious indicator of this movie's "legs". It wasn't just a rush of people going to see this movie. Just to put this into perspective Jurassic World, after its record breaking debut made $25 million on its first Monday. Jurassic World ended up taking in $652 million. The Force Awakens is already $54 million above that pace and likely to extend that lead every day this week.

 

We'll find out tomorrow that this movie went over the $300 million mark this afternoon and will pass pass $350 million on Wednesday or Thursday at the latest both, again, smashing the old records. If Monday wasn't a total fluke, it will likely pass $400 million on Christmas. That would be 8 days. The current record (again Jurassic World) is 10. Even crazier is that it has an outside shot at $500 million as early as Saturday (over a week sooner than Jurassic World).

 

And the future's also bright. It has the misfortune of its 2nd Friday being Christmas (a lousy holiday for box office). However, the slate of movies coming out for the next three weeks is pretty weak. The Point Break remake, Joy, and Concussion this week. Hateful Eight opening New Year's. And pretty much nothing January 8. Maybe Hateful Eight makes a dent as Tarantion's last couple movies have done good box office, but I doubt it slows it down much. Ride Along 2 is the first real competition and that doesn't open until January 15.

 

Which means that The Force Awakens will pretty much get a free ride for most of its first month. Which means that its legs will be artificially extended.

 

Sit back folks, it's looking like this film isn't just going to be big. It's going to be a monster. There's an excellent chance that it will not only catch Avatar, it could blow right by it.

 

Here's a list of the records it's already broken according to Box Office Mojo:

 

 

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fuck the inflated list. Back then movies was all people had. So much more competition now. It's apples and oranges.

It's doing so well, I wonder if they'll make more

Only 245 million? That's what Disney gets for targeting the 'casuals'. Time to reinstate the old EU

The think I paid twice as much for my TFA thursday tix compared to the matinee TPM tix. Plus those imax and 3d tickets jack up the sales as well. I remember when Titanic was a phenomena. Now every year there seems to be a contender to the box office throne.

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Seriously though, do you think Lucas actually got a bit ripped off? It doesn't seem like it's going to take Disney long to get that $4 billion investement back with these kinda numbers. He could of made more just producing and releasing them himself if he did it over a couple of years. (Glad he didn't, but still)

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I've heard that if TFA doesn't make $1.5 billion at the box office, Disney will be disappointed. That's a high number for a December-opening film. Maybe not impossible though.

 

Assuming you're talking worldwide box office there, $1.5 billion shouldn't be a problem. The Star Wars films tend to overperform in the United States compared to the rest of the world, but rarely does a movie make less than half of its total in foreign theaters. Usually it's between 60-70% these days.

 

The Force Awakens probably only missed out on the foreign box office opening weekend record because it hasn't opened in China yet.

 

The over/under for The Force Awakens worldwide is whether it can catch up with Titanics $2.1 billion.

 

 

How much did it cost to make TFA??

 

The numbers I'm seeing tossed around in various articles are $200 million for the movie and $350 million the movie and the marketing.

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Seriously though, do you think Lucas actually got a bit ripped off? It doesn't seem like it's going to take Disney long to get that $4 billion investement back with these kinda numbers. He could of made more just producing and releasing them himself if he did it over a couple of years. (Glad he didn't, but still)

It's the merchandising.

 

"Where the real money from the movie is made.' - Yogurt, Spaceballs

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Another $37 million yesterday means that the Monday numbers weren't a fluke. That brings the total up to $325 million. New records set: Biggest Tuesday ever and fastest to $300 million. On track to pass $400 million on Friday and $500 million on Saturday or Sunday. It is now $67 million ahead of Jurassic World's pace.

 

Difficult to see how this doesn't pass Avatar from this point. The only question is by how much.

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Seriously though, do you think Lucas actually got a bit ripped off? It doesn't seem like it's going to take Disney long to get that $4 billion investement back with these kinda numbers. He could of made more just producing and releasing them himself if he did it over a couple of years. (Glad he didn't, but still)

Ripped off? I wish someone would rip me off with 4 billion...

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It will likely become the all time domestic champ, but I don't think worldwide.

 

Yeah, that seems unlikely. Star Wars just doesn't have quite the international appeal that it has with domestic audiences. Like I said, Titanic's $2.18 billion is the over/under. I'd have to do some spreadsheet work for something more accurate, but a quick and dirty estimate with the domestic/foreign ratio being 40/60, I'd predict the following:

 

Domestic: $850 million

Foreign: $1.275 billion

Worldwide: $2.125 billion

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850 is a huge number, kids are eventually going to go back to school. Although I suppose it could be up in the mid 600's by that time. I just don't think its going to beat Avatar by near 100 mil.

 

I think at this point, 800 is a fair over/under. I'll take the under, but beating Avatar's 760.

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850 is a huge number, kids are eventually going to go back to school. Although I suppose it could be up in the mid 600's by that time. I just don't think its going to beat Avatar by near 100 mil.

 

It's a big number, no doubt. But the numbers we're talking about are huge. It's crushing these weekday records by almost 50% of any non-opening movies. These numbers aren't just big, they're unheard of. Add in low competition, excellent critical and audience support, a high re-watch ratio, and this long holiday are going to inflate the early numbers something serious. Big box office numbers often beget a bandwagon effect as well.

 

Like I said, this movie is most likely going to pass $500 million this weekend somewhere around the $540 million mark by Sunday (Box Office Mojo's current estimate is $565 million). That's about $200 million short of Avatar after only 10 days.

 

After 10 days Jurassic World, a movie that The Force Awakens is outperforming by 25%, faced a ton of competition and wasn't particularly liked by critics or audiences, still managed another $250 million. The Force Awakened would only need to duplicate that run in order to reach the $800 million mark.

 

 

 

I think at this point, 800 is a fair over/under. I'll take the under, but beating Avatar's 760.

 

I'll take the over.

 

It's difficult to wrap one's brain around it, but $850 million is not a particularly bold prediction. If this movie doesn't slow down soon, it could go significantly higher than that.

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He also got Disney stock out of the deal.

Aaah, didn't know that. Makes more sense now.

 

 

Seriously though, do you think Lucas actually got a bit ripped off? It doesn't seem like it's going to take Disney long to get that $4 billion investement back with these kinda numbers. He could of made more just producing and releasing them himself if he did it over a couple of years. (Glad he didn't, but still)

 

Ripped off? I wish someone would rip me off with 4 billion...

Ripped if say you could of gotten 10 billion potentially instead. But yeah, can't disagree with you either lol.

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The people who got ripped off were 20th Century Fox when Lucas negotiated the rights to the sequel and merchandising rights instead of keeping it for themselves.

 

A deal they made to save a couple hundred thousand has probably cost that company tens of billions over the years.

 

Of course, had 20th Century Fox controlled Star Wars, they probably would have run the franchise into the ground by the early 80s and we'd be living through its 3rd reboot right about now. Lucas was very good at not killing the golden goose over 35 years.

 

In that sense, Disney is the perfect partner as they're the company that best understands how to preserve their classic film into perpetual cultural touchstones. Though their creation of spin-off movies is quite worrisome.

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Slight uptick Wednesday to $38 million. Current total is $363.5 million.

 

On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, The Force Awakened earned $115.5 million. That beats the previous Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday record of $69.6 million from Jurassic World by 66%. If those days were to comprise a weekend, that total would be good enough for 24th all-time. Up there with blockbusters like Man of Steel, Minions, Spider-Man, and Pirate of the Caribbean: At World's End.

 

Expect the Thursday numbers to dip a bit as Christmas Eve traditionally sees a drop in attendance at theaters.

 

Box Office Mojo's weekend prediction is $178.5 million ($565 million total). If it performs to this level, that would put it only $195 million behind Avatar and on pace to pass it New Year's weekend. The current 2nd weekend record is Jurassic World's $106.6 million ($402 million total). If Box Office Mojo's prediction is reached, that would be the 5th largest weekend of all-time. Behind only Jurassic World, The Avengers, Avengers: Age of Ultron, and the mark The Force Awakens itself set last weekend.

 

If Box Office Mojo's prediction comes true and you apply a simple 50% weekly drop to predict the upcoming weeks, the total domestic box office comes out to be $880 million.

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Guest El Chalupacabra

Well the thing Star Wars has going for it more than most other franchises is that Star Wars fans go to see it multiple times. I'm calling it now: TFA will top $1Billion domestic.

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