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Alright, who else here is voting for THE DONALD?


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They could've been a lot meaner to Hillary if they wanted to. I'm thinking her naked and disgusting body with Bill on a chain licking her feet with the severed heads of Paula Jones and Blewinsky in each hand.

 

Caption would read: "sucks not to be president, so this'll have to do."

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Kurgan laying down some motherf-cking TRUTH right here.   Preach it.

Good lord. Two threads, same comment. Let's slam Trump for the Duke thing. Who else is that guy gonna endorse?   If you force feed PC bullshit down American throats, Donald Trump is what you get.

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^people actually voted for that guy simply cause he is good looking. People couldn't stop talking bout it when I was in Montreal. I wonder if he's any good?

He's better than the guy before him. And in politics, that's always good enough.

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I'd hit it.

Also-- slightly of topic... for the record, I'd legit buy a GW painting if they were reasonably priced.

Hillary or the Donald? Either way, what you're talking about is sexual deviancy.

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^people actually voted for that guy simply cause he is good looking. People couldn't stop talking bout it when I was in Montreal. I wonder if he's any good?

He's better than the guy before him. And in politics, that's always good enough.

 

His father was PM, right?

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Well thats kind of his thing, isn't it? He's gonna call a spade a spade. it doesn't matter if it's liberal media or fox backasswardness he's gonna hit it.

 

Truth is it doesn't matter who wins this election, but I love watching people give a shit.

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I don't want Trump to win-- but I am 100% behind how he is basically proving our system is total bullshit.

 

I think the best outcome, though unlikely, is if Bernie and Trump break off as indies once they don't get their party backing and we have four candidates going into the primary. I've never voted for the lesser of four evils before.

 

OR-- if Trump does win, I think that will finally be the thing that makes us break up into smaller nations so I no longer have to associate with the bible belt. Also, I'd like a pony.

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OMG the Pope just said Trump isn't a Christian!

 

Huh. Maybe it's time to take a second look at Trump.

I get Trump's appeal on some level, but what I can't wrap my head around is the evangelical right's support. The guy is the embodiment of the deadly sins (I know the seven deadly sins aren't technically a Bible thing but you get the idea). Meanwhile, Obama is shunned by the right for doing many of the things the Bible encourages i.e. "Do unto others" rule for accepting of other religions and lifestyles and the parable of the Good Samaritan, lending comfort to someone even if they are perceived to be an enemy.

 

The other thing to note is that Trump and Trump supporters are upset that the Pope has the audacity to question another man's faith, meanwhile many Trump supporters are relentless in convincing others Obama is a Muslim.

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I wish I could remember the author, but I read an article a few months ago that basically explained it as:

 

"Obama does 'Christian' things, but wants to force us to pay for abortions and hire gays and other things we are not OK with. Screw that guy. Meanwhile, the GOP establishment repeatedly promises that they won't force is into the 20th century, but doesn't actually do anything to stop abortions/halt the gayvasion while in office -- at best, they slow the creep of progress. Screw those guys. Trump may not 'one of us,' and he doesn't care about us, but he definitely will not bow to the secular left. At this point, we just want to be left alone -- and we think we'll get that with Trump."

Obviously, it was a lot more in-depth than that, but the mindset kinda made sense.

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OMG the Pope just said Trump isn't a Christian!

 

Huh. Maybe it's time to take a second look at Trump.

I get Trump's appeal on some level, but what I can't wrap my head around is the evangelical right's support. The guy is the embodiment of the deadly sins (I know the seven deadly sins aren't technically a Bible thing but you get the idea). Meanwhile, Obama is shunned by the right for doing many of the things the Bible encourages i.e. "Do unto others" rule for accepting of other religions and lifestyles and the parable of the Good Samaritan, lending comfort to someone even if they are perceived to be an enemy.

 

The other thing to note is that Trump and Trump supporters are upset that the Pope has the audacity to question another man's faith, meanwhile many Trump supporters are relentless in convincing others Obama is a Muslim.

 

Trump isn't the evangelical right's candidate. They are primarily supporting Cruz (this is one big reason why he won Iowa), with a little bit going to Carson, and then the rest being split about equally between Trump and the establishment candidates. Carson was their original candidate until Trump made a fool out of him. In the instance that Cruz collapses, the evangelical vote will probably be roughly split between the establishment and Trump, depending on whether a person is more sympathetic to a conciliatory tone, or is driven primarily by anger. I could write a lot more, but I already wrote a long post before, so I'll just quote it below. I explain how the GOP's factions are working in great detail below if you're interested in knowing more.

 

 

Easily Cruz. Short version: because he's a true believer.

 

To answer this question fully you have to first step back and understand where the candidates are drawing their support from. Although some that are analyzing the election in an unsophisticated manner lump all the anti-establishment candidates into a big "outsider" group, the truth is that they have very different bases. There was a good article in the NYT that explained this. The long and short of it is- candidates like Carson (who has since imploded, his support going to Cruz), drew their supporters from the religious right. Carson was their guy until Trump exposed him, and now their votes have gone to Cruz, at least for the time being. They probably would've preferred someone like Carson since he's less inflammatory, but Cruz will do just fine for them as well. These voters are looking for someone that stresses social conservatism front and center, likes overt and frequent references to God and Christianity, and likes a generally unwavering stance on economic issues.

 

Trump, by contrast, is pulling his voters from a completely different faction- the disaffected. The type of voter that may vote Republican mostly, but is likely to identify himself as "independent" and before the Reagan years, was probably a Democrat. These were the voters that tended to support Perot in '92, who by the way, pulled voters from both Bush and Clinton (it is a popular, but incorrect, myth that he solely took voters from Bush and was the spoiler). These voters care more about economics, where they tend to be protectionist and anti-trade, and less about social issues. Consistent with that, you notice these are the issues that Trump pushes in his rallies- I just watched his latest speech in Vermont from last week, and in contrast with Carson or Cruz, there is practically no discussion of social issues, not a mention of God, but a lot of talk about say, immigration and China.

 

One voter you see more of in Iowa, where Cruz leads, and the other is more prevalent in NH, where Trump leads. Examining the candidates' constituency is important in informing you where their bread is buttered, so to speak. The religious right tends to expect someone more ideologically "pure," and as such, Cruz fits the bill- he is an ideologue who is driven more by a specific agenda, and he gains respect from not wavering from that agenda when he was in Congress. On the other hand, the disaffecteds aren't necessarily consistent on any particular issue- they are more concerned about their economic well being and having strong leadership. Their participation in, for example, the Tea party rallies had a lot less to do with actually agreeing with an economic conservative message, and more about just voicing discontent with DC. The Atlantic had a great article about this recently, examining the Trump base, "The Great Republican Revolt" (well worth a read).

 

So given all that, what would each candidate look like in the White House? Well, we already have an idea with Cruz- again, much more of a "true believer" who gains his support from those expecting purity and who's become known for being inflexible on anything outside of the agenda. In that sense, it's very predictable what items he would push (whether he'd actually get Congressional support is another story, of course).

 

But what about Trump? Well, he'd be more of a wild card for sure, but upon closer examination, he'd be less alarming than you think. Trump, unlike Cruz, is not an ideologue. It's not clear he really has any true agenda at all. He's gone back and forth on many issues, but one thing he's been consistent about, is he's always had a bit of a nationalist streak, and leaning anti-trade (you can go back to interviews in the 90s and 80s and he's always basically held those positions). But on everything else, I don't think he really has an opinion. Really, what's guiding him more than anything else, is his own personal popularity. When you look at it like that, the degree of 'craziness' there would be, seems to be somewhat exaggerated. There was a good article in the Washington Post about this, ""It’s not chaos. It’s Trump’s campaign strategy," discussing his campaign. Despite candidates like Bush labeling Trump a "chaos candidate," in reality, Trump's campaign is very calculated and meticulous. Everything Trump is doing is not by accident- it's discussed more in the article, so I won't repeat it here, but basically Trump is a master at marketing and salesmanship, and carefully pushes issues that resonate with the crowd, and discards those that don't. Many people have really failed to understand how Trump has gained his support and how he campaigns, including Bush (which explains why he has been so ineffective at surviving Trump's attacks).

 

So from that perspective, I think Trump would end up having generally a centrist presidency. He'd probably be more hard-line on immigration, but on just about every other issue, Trump has shown flexibility and unlike Cruz, relishes deal-making. Cruz never struck me as someone that enjoyed the Congressional game (as opposed to Trump, who basically lives on negotiation) and I see Cruz taking more of a "my way or the highway" approach, which if he has the numbers in Congress, is certainly more worrisome (and if he doesn't, would lead to yet another 4 years of gridlock). Trump, on the other hand, is more of a centrist and has taken positions outside the orthodoxy- for example, on infrastructure (he supports increased spending), or banking (he supports increased taxes on Wall Street hedge funds), or trade (he would increase tariffs). There's a lot there where he could give Democrats a win on, whereas Cruz is much more handcuffed to his ideology. I actually think Trump is probably the best bet to get some of the grand bargains we haven't seen since the Clinton years. On top of that, you have to remember that Trump is not financially beholden to anyone, whereas do you really think Cruz would bite the hand that feeds him?

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Trump isn't the evangelical right's candidate. They are primarily supporting Cruz (this is one big reason why he won Iowa), with a little bit going to Carson, and then the rest being split about equally between Trump and the establishment candidates.

That's not what the polls out of SC are saying (yesterday it was 31 Trump, 23 Cruz).

 

I get that he isn't somebody who you'd expect them to support, even somebody they should support, but at least the ones who have been responding are leaning Trump atm.

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That poll doesn't say anything except Trump leads, which he has in almost every state since before the holidays, it doesn't mean anything. That's like saying Clinton leads liberals because she polls stronger than Sanders nationally, but we all know Clinton's not really winning the white progressive vote, it just makes up less of the larger Dem base.

 

The polls are not broken down by demographic. Those 23% that Cruz is winning are the most religious voters. If you asked a question like, rank the importance of issues, people in the Cruz camp are probably putting issues like gay marriage and abortion in the top tier. Trump voters are more likely to put things like immigration, anti-trade, anti-PC culture, etc. Now because it's SC, even Trump voters are going to put something like abortion higher than say, NH. But few Trump supporters are going to put it #1.

 

Of the 31% that Trump is pulling, I'd estimate less than a third is probably evangelical voters. The other 2/3 are probably just nationalists/nativists.

 

Not every single voter in SC is part of the evangelical right, pong. Sure, SC as a state is more religious than average, and naturally those 31% that Trump is getting are certainly more religious than the American mean voter, but I bet you those 23% that Cruz are getting are even more so. This is why Cruz won Iowa but didn't come close to Trump in NH. NH has few evangelicals and IA is probably one of their strongest states. SC has a lot of evangelicals too, but they also have a lot of voters that you don't see in IA (defense hawks, nativists, old Southern money, and so on).

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That poll doesn't say anything except Trump leads, which he has in almost every state since before the holidays, it doesn't mean anything. That's like saying Clinton leads liberals because she polls stronger than Sanders nationally, but we all know Clinton's not really winning the white progressive vote, it just makes up less of the larger Dem base.

I know how to read a ****ing poll. He was leading Cruz with evangelicals in SC 31% to 23%. He leads with veterans 37% to 22%. The only group Cruz leads Trump in is the "very conservative" voters, who favor Cruz over Trump 31% to 29%.

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