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2014 NFL Super Bowl Pick'em


Ms. Spam
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Data, Guts, And The Right Way To Think About The Seahawks' Decision To Make The Wrong Call

 

Key paragraph -- though the ESPN link doesn't link properly:

According to an ESPN report, there was a total of 332 plays from the one-yard line during the 2014 NFL season. The 223 running plays resulted in a touchdown 58% of the time, while the 109 passing plays resulted in a touchdown 61% of the time. That means a pass play even with a player like Marshawn Lynch in your backfield isn’t obviously wrongheaded.

It just wasn't a successful play.

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Lynch and the Seahawks have converted over 60% of "and-1 to go" situations over the last 3 years. http://pfref.com/tiny/FKYMh Run the damn ball.

 

You've got Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees in that situation... sure, entertain the idea of passing. That's your strength. The Seahawks? They run the ball. That's who they are. Not only that, Wilson had nothing in the short game all night long. His average yardage on throws was like nearly 20 yards downfield. They aren't a short passing team like the Patriots.

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Lynch runs possessed, he runs harder with more anger than any back we've seen in some time. There is no way the Patriots or any other football team or the entire armed forces of a mid sized nation are preventing him from getting 2 feet on that play when he can smell the Super Bowl Championship.

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What Seattle is saying is that since they only had 1 time out left that in order to get all 3 cracks at the end zone, they needed a pass play in there somewhere. They are ignoring the fact that it would have only taken one play very likely.

 

Right way to do it is:

 

Lynch on 2nd down. If stopped you roll Wilson out for a run/pass option on 3rd down. He knows he either runs it in, has someone wide open or he throws it away. Then on 4th you give it to the big man again and let the chips falls where they may.

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What's funny about all the stats is that Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been automatic from the 1-yard line in Seattle. He’s actually converted only five of his 12 tries from one yard out over the past three seasons.

Sample size. Not that my 75 was much better in the grand scheme of things, but still.

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