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Evaluate the Trade!


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14 replies to this topic

#1
Lucas1138

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This may or may not turn into a larger discussion about trades (hopefully) but three teams in my other keeper league just pulled off a massive blockbuster. Wanted to get some other opinions on it.

Rules: exact same as NFF (4 keepers; RB, RB/WR, 2 WR). Only difference is that we still just have the 1 developmental rookie spot.

Assume that each party was more than happy with the trade and believed it accomplished their goals (filled a position of need, traded away extra talent at a position, building for the future, trying to win now, etc). Basically assume there would be a method to the madness for each party. If you're particularly curious, ask me and I'll try to let you know.

Team A Trades:
Matt Ryan
Adrian Peterson

Team A Receives
Drew Brees
Steven Jackson
Michael Turner

Team B Trades:
Drew Brees
Steven Jackson
Andrew Luck
Hakeem Nicks
2013 1st round pick

Team B Receives
Matt Ryan
Ray Rice
Brandon Marshall

Team C Trades:
Ray Rice
Michael Turner
Brandon Marshall

Team C Receives
Adrian Peterson
Andrew Luck
Hakeem Nicks
2013 1st round pick

#2
ShadowDog

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Team C got ****ed.

Some people in fantasy football like to trade just to trade. Because trading is fun. And this is supposed to be fun. I get that. I have a feeling that's behind this trade.

Personally, I'm not trading ****, especially my high picks, unless I'm super desperate.

Having said that, since the NFL extended the trade deadline I think we should too.

#3
Lucas1138

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Interested to hear a little more for why you think Team C got screwed.

#4
Darth Irish

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Team A got hosed, don't mind the take for the other teams. Jackson and Turner??? Yikes.

#5
ShadowDog

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Interested to hear a little more for why you think Team C got screwed.


To qualify, I mean in immediate terms. Long term it's not a bad deal because you get a high pick plus Luck, who will only get better. But you're not going to win now by getting rid of two top 10 running backs to receive one top 10 running back in return. So they get an F for this year, a C for next year, and a B+ for after that.

#6
Darth Lohr

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Team A: Potentially a good trade...but I doubt it. The QB swap is pretty even, but AD is likely to get better as the season rolls on and he's already more dependable than both Jackson & Turner. Turner's only getting about 14 carries a game and has become much more dependent on receptions & TDs to attain decent production (i.e. a crapshoot). Jackson's warranty is long expired and who knows how much he'll play? The only upside is if both backs somehow regain their old form, thus giving better RB depth. Unlikely.

Team B: Holy "Win now", Batman! Again, QBs are even. Obviously Rice is a big upgrade over Jackson (especially as it gets colder & the Ravens start leaning on him a bit more). Nicks & Marshall are a pretty even swap - if Nicks were healthy. He isn't and it's not clear when he will be, so this is another upgrade. So, great for this season. Assuming Luck is DP eligible, though, they borrowed from Peter to pay Paul. Still, they got a younger keeper QB and a keeper RB (which Jackson may not be anymore), so that offsets the impact on the future a bit. Hard to say for sure without knowing the rest of the roster, but I'd probably do this trade.

Team C: Polar opposite theory, here. Building for the future. They lose immediate RB depth, so unless they have a Turner-caliber back to step into his spot, this is an overall downgrade at RB. As noted above, Nicks' health concerns makes this a likely downgrade at WR, as well. So, great for next year. Sucky for this year. Overall grade on this trade would have to depend on the rest of the roster, as to whether or not they could afford this year's downgrades.

#7
Lucas1138

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Interesting points. Lohr seems to be on the best track though, as far as what each owner was trying to accomplish. However I will question a couple of his arguments (because he actually put them out there).

Why is AP likely to get better (coming up on 28 and coming off a completely reconstructed knee)? What makes him more dependent than Turner so far? They both have one single digit fantasy game so far and their point totals have actually been really similar (both averaging 12.5ppg). Turner becoming "much more dependent on receptions" isn't really accurate as he isn't being targeted any more than in the past, though he did just catch a TD for the first time in his career last week; that still appears to be an outlier. Jackson just last season averaged 12ppg and to be fair 3 of his first 4 games have been against good rush defenses. I think it's early to write him off, but yes he has been disappointing so far.

The Peter/Paul analogy for Team B is perfectly accurate. That was the goal of the owner in this trade.

Likewise with C. Team C has Trent Richardson waiting in the wings so giving up Turner was an "acceptable casualty." Personally I think that Nicks' injury makes he and Marshall a wash; without the injury I think Nicks is easily ahead of Marshall (my own opinion).

Additional facts:

Team A:
- 7th in points
- (1-3) on the year, almost out of it.
- Not a strong team before due to lack of depth
- Next best RB (due to injuries) was Pierre Thomas. Traded AP for Turner and Jackson. Even if you're sour on those two, that's more comforting than starting AP and "some warm body" every week, right? Whoops, that's editorial and I'm not ready for that yet, but you get my point.

Team B:
- 6th in points scored, but only 3ppg out of 2nd.
- (1-3) on the year but still in good shape to make something out of it
- Other starters: Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Percy Harvin

Team C:
- 10th of 12 in points scored.
- (0-4) on the year, totally out of it.
- Other players on team: AJ Green, Trent Richardson (DP eligible still), Dez Bryant

I'll also say that trade began as a discussion between Teams B and C. Team B wanted Ray Rice which Team C was willing to part with (for a good price/investment) but they both knew that Team B couldn't give up the horses necessary for that trade while also staying competitive this year (B's goal). That's when Team A was brought into the mix. Team A was a facilitator in many of the 3 team trades you see in the NBA. Not necessarily looking to gain a ton, maybe just a little while helping the trade get done.

#8
Lucas1138

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Here's my rationale for each team.

Team A:
- Brees is an immediate and short term upgrade over Ryan.
- As I touched on above, I think those two RBs for Peterson is about even. What pushes it over the top for Team A is that their next best RB is Pierre Thomas.
- I think Team A is improved in 2012, with a recognizable potential drop off as Jackson and Turner continue to age (though I disagree that this worry is not present with AP as well)
, if not as imminent)

Team B:
- Owner was very disappointed in the start to the season of 1-3, but was unlucky getting there. Saw Jackson as part of the problem, though he's a fan, didn't want to wait for Jackson because it might cost him precious wins if it doesn't happen ASAP.
- Personally I think Ryan is a downgrade from Brees, but this owner is obsessed with Ryan.
- Ray Rice is definitely worth Luck and a 1st. I think Rice is a top 5 player for at least the next 3 seasons (after this one). A lot can be said for that consistency. Plus he catches balls. Luck won't see his full value for minimum of two seasons I wouldn't think.
- Luck is a casualty of the trade, but that's why he drafted him. Investment. Same with the 1st round pick, gotta break eggs to make an omellette. And QB is not a position of need for this team.
- Nicks for Marshall is roughly a toss-up, probably giving the edge to Marshall because of Nicks' current injury.

Team C:
- Rice for AP is probably even-ish over the next two seasons; will likely see decline from AP after that. But for now that's close to a wash. I wouldn't be surprised to see AP on the move again this offseason.
- Given that the team is 0-4 and out of it for this season I think the argument for Turner and Marshall for Luck/Nicks/1st is pretty easy to make, agreed?
- Was surprising to give up both Rice and Turner, but getting AP and having Trent Richardson in the wings to replace Turner is a fine replacement.

So I actually like the trade for each team. All the owners seemed satisfied with their takes and felt that they fulfilled an important need in some way (be it short term, intermediate or long term).

Bonus points if you can guess which team I am :) I'll give Lohr a chance to chime in again (and whoever else) before I say which one I am and really get into the rationale on my end.

#9
Darth Lohr

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Why is AP likely to get better (coming up on 28 and coming off a completely reconstructed knee)? What makes him more dependent than Turner so far? They both have one single digit fantasy game so far and their point totals have actually been really similar (both averaging 12.5ppg). Turner becoming "much more dependent on receptions" isn't really accurate as he isn't being targeted any more than in the past, though he did just catch a TD for the first time in his career last week; that still appears to be an outlier. Jackson just last season averaged 12ppg and to be fair 3 of his first 4 games have been against good rush defenses. I think it's early to write him off, but yes he has been disappointing so far.


The first few games, All Day was shaking off the rust. He and his team were seeing how the knee is, gaining confidence. He's touched the ball 52 times over the last two games now and has reclaimed his role as the focus of the offense. So, he should be good for at least 10-12 pts from yardage most weeks. The dropoff has come from not scoring in the last 3 games. However, with his return to form, the continuing growth of Christian Ponder, and the addition of Jerome Simpson to go along with Percy Harvin, I expect the Vikings offense to improve as we go along. This should give Adrian more chances to find the endzone, which should raise his scoring average closer to what we're used to seeing from him.

As we know, consistency relies on opportunity. The engine of his team's offense, AD is getting 20 carries a game (plus 2-3 catches). As mentioned, his workload has actually been increasing. In contrast, whether out of design or necessity, both Jackson and Turner have started sliding towards RBBC situations. Though both are still their respective team's #1 RB, neither is the focal point of the offense. Each is getting 60% or less of their team's carries: about 14 carries per game each. This may be because the wear and tear is catching up to them: Jackson has ~300 carries/season over the last 3 years, Turner ~300 carries/season over the last 4 years. On the other hand, Peterson (the youngest of the three) has only carried it 245 times/season over the last 2 years.

The Falcons are a potent offense, but they also have a ton of other red zone options besides Turner. Jackson is getting just 3.3 yds per carry and always has health concerns, the Rams are near the bottom of the league in scoring, and a quarter of the way through the season they don't have a single rushing TD. Again, it's (almost) all about opportunity. Of course, as you say, AD is just one guy and depth must be considered. Then again, even if there is no RB depth, the way Jackson has been producing, they might be better off going 3-wide!

So, of the three teams, the only one I'm not crazy about is Team A - so with my luck, that's probably you! :lol: (Though, for the record, I think you are Team C).

#10
ShadowDog

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That would explain why he got pissed when I said Team C got screwed. LOL

#11
Lucas1138

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You might need to reread my response to you Dex

#12
ShadowDog

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Its cool, man, we get that you're ashamed you got hosed. <3

#13
Lucas1138

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Reading is hard, I know.
  • Darth Lohr and ShadowDog +1 this

#14
Darth Lohr

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READING IS FUN FOR MENTALS



#15
ShadowDog

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Apparently so is comedy.