I agree it is almost complete luck and maybe going on a hunch. But you really cant play the If Then because records will be different. How often do you see a team go 10-6 with mid pack total scoring who makes the playoffs and an 8-8 team who misses the playoffs and scores the 2nd or 3rd most amount of points? That happens regularly.
Case in point in the nightly yahoo football league. Europia Monoliths score 56.50 points and win. That point total would have only beaten 1 team and just so happens it was the team he was playing against. Ex's Republic scored 109.50 points and lost. He would have defeated over half of the teams had he played them. This is why the If Then theory doesnt work.
No, that is why it does work. It's the only realistic way you can compare two teams over an entire season. Unless you're saying that in your example the Monoliths were the better team, because they won and the Republic lost. Which is just stupid. That's like saying that a high school team that goes undefeated must be better than a NFL team that goes 8-8.
If you look at each week and compare what Team A and Team B scored, it will clearly show you who would've won that week. It will clearly show you how each team performed on a weekly basis. That wouldn't work in real football, but this is fantasy football.