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Nightly Summer Blockbuster Prediction Game


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117 replies to this topic

#101
Doc Brown

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Dude. I forgot about this.

#102
NumberSix

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The rules are simple, pick 10 movies from the list below you think will be the highest grossing movies during this summer's blockbuster period (April 29th-August 31). Any money a movie makes after that doesn't count.


Just copying S-Dog's official rules onto page three so I don't have to keep hitting "Back".

Rise of the Planet of the Apes will bump Kung Fu Panda 2 and that should be the final list, barring a fluke breakout by Conan or some sleeper. Pretty surprising to me that KFP2 won't make the top ten. And I'm not sure anyone picked Apes, did they? It wasn't really on the radar back in April.


Apes and especially Bridesmaids were major upsets to all involved. I'm sure their respective studios were blown away and are already signing up product endorsements for the sequels.

If I'm reading Harry's Mojo excerpt correctly, KFP2 is #9, and Captain America is on the bubble at #10. If the rules stand as-is and the final standings will be based on ending grosses as of August 31, 2011, then Apes will need to pull in a good $42M+ over the next two weekends to steal that spot, which would require some phenomenal word-of-mouth. Not unheard of, but not likely.

Unless there's something astounding in Conan that's been missing from every single trailer so far, unless Spy Kids 4D becomes an overnight Potter-level national obsession, or unless X-Men: First Class is re-released next weekend with surprise 3-D upconversion, I'm betting Cap's safe.

#103
NumberSix

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I've been waiting for this moment for months:

That could be doable. And make my name taste like dog**** in your mouth if it's about infringing on my Conan pick. That pick ROCKS.


Box Office Mojo on today's early Friday returns:

Conan the Barbarian went the way of past August fantasy/ancient action movies and flopped hard. Joining the ranks of Kull the Conqueror and The Last Legion and earning less interest than even The 13th Warrior, Conan reaped an estimated $3.7 million on around 4,500 screens at 3,015 locations. It's a far cry from the 1982 Conan, let alone The Beastmaster. The Conan remake's director, Marcus Nispel, was also responsible for the similar dud Pathfinder. With roughly 2,100 locations, 3D was 62 percent of Conan's take.


My reaction: DULL SURPRISE.

#104
Darth Krawlie

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This list probably won't be official enough for you guys, but yeah.

#105
Mandard

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Capt America will hop over Bridesmaids for #8 this weekend. Apes will break into the top ten in another week or two, but I'm all for going with the Aug 31 deadline since that'll give me points for Panda and Apes won't. :)

#106
NumberSix

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Top 10 ending grosses according to BOM as of Thursday, August 26th:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 -- $368,240,692
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon -- $348,816,955
3. The Hangover Part II -- $254,236,410
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides -- $240,141,369**
5. Fast Five -- $209,837,675 (final gross, now out of theaters)
6. Cars 2 -- $186,951,457**
7. Thor -- $181,030,624
8. Bridesmaids -- $167,821,205
9. Captain America: The First Avenger -- $166,521,868
10. Kung Fu Panda 2 -- $164,067,558

( ** Denote movies whose 8/25 tallies were too low to appear on that day's chart. Grosses are taken instead from Sunday 8/21/11 for sake of comparison.)

Honorable mention so far:

X-Men: First Class -- $146,010,145
Rio -- $143,574,211
Rise of the Planet of the Apes -- $139,806,277

Could this weekend and the following three days make a difference? I kinda hope not, because KFP2 is on my list too. :indy:

#107
3 & 6 years to go...

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So, do we have a final tally?

#108
NumberSix

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Top 10 ending grosses according to BOM as of Tuesday, August 31th:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 -- $372,150,983
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon -- $349,759,744
3. The Hangover Part II -- $254,333,102
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides -- $240,141,369
5. Fast Five -- $209,837,675
6. Cars 2 -- $186,951,457
7. Thor -- $181,030,624
8. Captain America: The First Avenger -- $169,699,174
9. Bridesmaids -- $168,175,335
10. Kung Fu Panda 2 -- $164,360,669

Final honorable mentions, by which I mean the FAIL pile:

Rise of the Planet of the Apes -- $152,224,693
X-Men: First Class -- $146,169,988
Rio -- $143,602,602
The Smurfs -- $127,952,612
Super 8 -- $126,176,306
Green Lantern -- $116,042,554
Horrible Bosses -- $114,154,648
The Help -- $104,390,553
Bad Teacher -- $98,300,388
Cowboys & Aliens -- $94,381,155

Lemme do some more tinkering and I'll tally up individual scores later tonight.

[THT EDIT: corrected the 8th- and 9th-place finishers. Thanks to Lucas8675309 for the catch.]

Edited by NumberSix, 13 September 2011 - 07:35 PM.


#109
Lucas1138

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Unless I've forgotten my numbers... Captain America should be over Bridesmaids... right?

#110
Wally Q

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I'm really shocked at how well Potter did this summer. I figured it would maybe do $320M but not close to $400. I'm really glad Cars 2 was a bust and would hope Disney would back off on that franchise but I'm sure merchandise is a different story. :no:

#111
NumberSix

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Final scores:

Mandard: 190
The Choc: 150
Copper: 140
Doc Brown: 140
irishdancer2: 140
NumberSix: 140
Brett: 130
Mara Jade Skywalker: 120
Tank (2nd try): 120
Darth Spoon: 110
D-Ray Kenobi: 110
Good God a Fumble: 110
Tank (1st try): 110
Bethany: 100
Ashaman: 80
Foxglove: 80
Kitster aka Boba Fett: 80
Shadowdog the Barbarian: 70
Iceman: 60

A maximum score would be 320 -- 50 points for a correct Harry Potter guess (as the majority of our players called it), plus 30 points apiece if you named the other nine movies in their exact respective positions. Thanks to Bridesmaids, no way was that gonna happen.

Unless I've forgotten my numbers... Captain America should be over Bridesmaids... right?


Fixed. I'm glad you caught that, as it made a big difference for a surprising number of people who'd all pegged Cap at #8. General consensus was that it would be just kinda great, and there it went.

#112
Lucas1138

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Raise your hand if you are surprised Mandard won this game.

No one? Yeah, me either.

This was a really cool game btw, kudos Dex.

#113
Iceman

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Final scores:

Mandard: 190
The Choc: 150
Copper: 140
Doc Brown: 140
irishdancer2: 140
NumberSix: 140
Brett: 130
Mara Jade Skywalker: 120
Tank (2nd try): 120
Darth Spoon: 110
D-Ray Kenobi: 110
Good God a Fumble: 110
Tank (1st try): 110
Bethany: 100
Ashaman: 80
Foxglove: 80
Kitster aka Boba Fett: 80
Shadowdog the Barbarian: 70
Iceman: 60


Wow. I suck at this. :laugh: I'm sticking with the TV Show Dead Pool game from now on.

#114
Mandard

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Yeah, I did pretty well. Just to rub it in, I even nailed the tiebreaker. I want a prize. What do I win? Somebody give me something!
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#115
Wally Q

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A free year's subscription to the Nightly Community Support?

#116
Copper

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haha, I love that I beat Tank.

Twice.

#117
NumberSix

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I had every right to ignore his second set of guesses, but I ended up including them after all because the difference they barely made was really amusing.
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#118
Tank

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I will burn the building to the ground.