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Nightly Summer Blockbuster Prediction Game


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117 replies to this topic

#26
Wally Q

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Really? Cause I guarantee you Transformers will potentially be consistent with the last film, especially factoring in the 3D attraction.

#27
TuskenRaider

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I hated the second film, and pretty much everybody I know did too. BUT, we're still going to see the third one in theaters because hey, there be big robots fighting in there.

#28
Wally Q

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Anyone with a functioning brain hated the second film. But this film had the benefit of prep and not being rushed through due to a strike.

I also want to see giant robots destroying Chicago in 3D but hey, I don't have to pay for movies.

#29
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Really? Cause I guarantee you Transformers will potentially be consistent with the last film, especially factoring in the 3D attraction.


Its possible, but there HAVE been series in which the first and maybe second movie did awesome numbers and then the third dropped WAY off. Karate Kid, for instance. Sex in the City 2 was a massive bomb compared to the first one's totals. I'm betting this third movie is going to go down that way.

#30
irishdancer2

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1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
2. Cars 2
3. Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
4. Green Lantern
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
6. Thor
7. King Fu Panda 2
8. Captain America: The First Avenger
9. X-Men: First Class
10. The Hangover Part II

Honorable Mention: Super 8. It has the benefit of being a zombie or alien movie or something, and those usually do well, plus it has the names Steven Spielberg and J.J. Abrams attached. However, with it centering around kids, there won't be any sweaty women looking disheveled and frightened in their clingy tops, so there goes half the ticket sales right there.

Harry Potter I really do think will be number 1. Being the last in a franchise, being part 2 of a set, the direction and effects getting better, the actors getting hotter... it's going to happen. Transformers I can see still being big because it's action and has giant robots, plus replacing Megan Fox with a Victoria's Secret model means the ticket sales to masturbating guys will be about the same. I'm not a fan of superhero movies but it turns out most people are; if those don't make the top 10 I'm going to be pissed.

Edited by irishdancer2, 29 March 2011 - 04:55 PM.


#31
Tank

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1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (has everyone going to see it-- kids, dudes, genre fans, women)
2. Cars 2 (has the kid/parent ticket)
3. Super 8 (has the genre fan/speilberg retro fan ticket)
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (has the dude ticket, older kid ticket, and genre fan ticket)
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (has everyone, but the last two were so bad I see reticence to see another)
6. Kung Fu Panda 2 (kid ticket)
7. Captain America: The First Avenger (genre fan, seems to have enough of a hero journey's tale that i think it will resonate with people)
8. The Beaver (this is the sleeper. Gibson's first outing since his crazy surfaced, and by all accounts it's got art-house sleeper comedy written all over it)
9. Fright Night (longshot-- but it's one of the only horror films up there, and horror always does good business)
10. Fast Five (dude ticket)

Tie breaker prediction for POTC: $350m

My opinion of other favorite picks: Hangover was a surprise hit, but the odds of them doing that again are slim. Sequels rarely perform. it will have a huge open, then drop like a rock. I think Green Lantern will actually bomb. Fans will go the first day, but word of mouth will kill it. I don't see Thor doing much better. X-Men without Hugh Jackman for the women vote or any a-list stars-- not going to do it for summer. Should have held this one for thanksgiving or something.

Bonus: biggest bomb-- The Smurfs

#32
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1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (has everyone going to see it-- kids, dudes, genre fans, women)
2. Cars 2 (has the kid/parent ticket)
3. Super 8 (has the genre fan/speilberg retro fan ticket)
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (has the dude ticket, older kid ticket, and genre fan ticket)
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (has everyone, but the last two were so bad I see reticence to see another)
6. Kung Fu Panda 2 (kid ticket)
7. Captain America: The First Avenger (genre fan, seems to have enough of a hero journey's tale that i think it will resonate with people)
8. The Beaver (this is the sleeper. Gibson's first outing since his crazy surfaced, and by all accounts it's got art-house sleeper comedy written all over it)
9. Fright Night (longshot-- but it's one of the only horror films up there, and horror always does good business)
10. Fast Five (dude ticket)

Tie breaker prediction for POTC: $350m

My opinion of other favorite picks: Hangover was a surprise hit, but the odds of them doing that again are slim. Sequels rarely perform. it will have a huge open, then drop like a rock. I think Green Lantern will actually bomb. Fans will go the first day, but word of mouth will kill it. I don't see Thor doing much better. X-Men without Hugh Jackman for the women vote or any a-list stars-- not going to do it for summer. Should have held this one for thanksgiving or something.

Bonus: biggest bomb-- The Smurfs



You have POTC at 350 and ahve it 5th? I dont see 5 movies making 350+ million.

#33
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That's called hedging your bets. Sometimes I'll pick a team to win because I think their defense is going to dominate but then I take the over just in case I'm wrong.

#34
NumberSix

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I think Green Lantern will actually bomb. Fans will go the first day, but word of mouth will kill it. I don't see Thor doing much better. X-Men without Hugh Jackman for the women vote or any a-list stars-- not going to do it for summer. Should have held this one for thanksgiving or something.


Sadly, I agree about GL and X-Men. I don't want them to fail, but all early evidence has made me pessimistic.

I had a hard time deciding who would win between Thor or Cap. It basically comes down to which setting is less alienating to Joe Average: World War II with super-heroes in it, or magical pompous Asgard. Ultimately I sided with Thor because Kenneth Branagh's track record beats the heck outta Joe Johnston's, and because I think a newly macho Chris Evans will be a harder sell, pecs or no pecs.

Bonus: biggest bomb-- The Smurfs


Not convinced. With just the right overbearing marketing blitz, that one could easily mesmerize the same massive kids-and-undiscerning parents demographics that made winners out of two (!) Alvin and the Chipmunks flicks.

If we're picking biggest bombs, I'm leaning toward Jim Carrey in Mr. Popper's Penguins. Unless it's Ace Ventura 3, working with animals again is not a healthy career move for him.

#35
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- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
- Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon
- Cars 2
- The Hangover Part II
- X-Men: First Class
- Kung Fu Panda 2
- The Smurfs
- Captain America: The First Avenger
- Green Lantern

Other mentions:
Sleeper: Super 8
Bomb: Conan the Barbarian
Disappointments (will do alright, but not as well as expected): Cowboys & Aliens, Thor

#36
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1- Pirates of the Caribbean
2- Cowboys & Aliens
3- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
4- Fast Five
5- Conan the Barbarian
6- Cars 2
7- Fright Night
8- Kung Fu Panda 2
9- Captain America: The First Avenger
10- The Sleeping Beauty

Tiebreaker: $350 million for POTC

#37
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Okay, so if we take what everybody's predicted so far and add them together like they do college football voting, we come up with an interesting preseason poll:

Movie................Voting points.........(first place votes)

1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 126 (10)
2) Cars 2 104
3) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 80 (1)
4) Transformers: Dark of the Moon 78 (1)
5) Kung Fu Panda 2 53
6) Super 8 50 (1)
7) Captain America: The First Avenger 42
8) X-Men: First Class 39
9) The Hangover 2 37
10) Green Lantern 26

Others receiving votes: Cowboys Vs. Aliens 21, Thor 21, Fast Five 10, Fright Night 6, Conan The Barbarian 6, The Beaver 3, The Smurfs 3, Horrible Bosses 1, The Sleeping Beauty 1

#38
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Sleeper: Super 8



Sleeper? Abrams and Speilberg and every fanboy from here to Devil's Tower jizzing their pants in anticipation?

you crazy.

#39
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That's why I couldn't make the tiebreaker what I wanted to, "pick the biggest sleeper hit" because how would you even define that? We know it when we see it, but it'd be hard to define ahead of time.

#40
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I'd define a sleeper as a film that has one or more of the following:

low budget (below $5mil)
a limited release
a miniscule marketing campaign compared to the blockbusters
indie financing
no a-list stars
an insane budget vs. return ratio

#41
Doc Brown

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1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
2) Transformers: Dark of the Moon
3) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
4) Cars 2
5) The Hangover: Part II
6) Kung Fu Panda 2
7) Captain America: The First Avenger
8) Super 8
9) X-Men First Class
10) Fast Five

POTC: 357.6 Mil

#42
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I truly am shocked so many people think Super 8 will do well.

#43
Foxglove

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2) Cars 2 104


Where is this ****ing Cars 2 love coming from? The first 1 was the worst Pixar movie ever. It was horrid.

#44
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Because as I mentioned earlier, Cars, while having a lower actual box office run than a lot of other Pixar movies, is far and away the leader in merchandise sales. As of this year, the Cars brand has sold over 8 BILLION dollars worth of stuff. Yes, you read that right, 8 billion. So the name recognition between the chilren who actually own all that stuff is enormous, and I think it will translate to a much larger box office.

http://www.hollywood...crossed-8-99438

#45
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I truly am shocked so many people think Super 8 will do well.


Any given summer Speilberg movie, or Abrams movie is likely to at least make it's money back and compete. It's a fanboy favorite. I don't doubt it will do well, but I'm still not convinced it will actually be good.


2) Cars 2 104


Where is this ****ing Cars 2 love coming from? The first 1 was the worst Pixar movie ever. It was horrid.


Even Pixar's worst performing feature crushes the average studio release. It wasn't their best, but it did fine on DVD.

#46
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Here's my (mostly) uneducated guesses without reading anyone else's predictions:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
The Hangover part II
Cars 2
Kung Fu Panda 2
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Captain America: The First Avenger
Thor
Cowboys & Aliens
Super 8

#47
Brando

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Has Mandard posted yet? I just want to copy and paste.

#48
Copper

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oh i forgot to do my tie-breaker: 298 mil for POTC

#49
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Has Mandard posted yet? I just want to copy and paste.


Cheater! J'accuse! ;)

#50
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Heh, I kinda wanted to play, but when I looked through the list I realized I had no solid predictions for anything. I just don't follow the movie buzz that closely these days. I've even sworn off movie trailers for the most part so I don't even know what most of these movies look like! I figured I'd just lurk and keep my reputation intact.

Buuuut...since I've been called out I suppose I can put together a list. I'll go watch some trailers and come back later make some guesses but I don't have high confidence in my predictions. Unfortunately, there probably won't be any snooty box office rants this year about how wrong you all are. :P