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Nightly Summer Blockbuster Prediction Game


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#1
ShadowDog

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The rules are simple, pick 10 movies from the list below you think will be the highest grossing movies during this summer's blockbuster period (April 29th-August 31). Any money a movie makes after that doesn't count. Rank the movies 1-10 in the order you think they'll finish. We're talking US box office totals here.

Points are awarded as follows:

10 Points for correctly predicting a top ten movie but getting the placement wrong.
30 Points for correctly predicting where in the top ten list a movie will finish.
50 Points for correctly predicting which movie will be the highest grossing movie of this summer.

Tiebreaker: Predict the exact box office total (in millions) of the new POTC movie. Closest to being correct wins the tiebreaker:

Whoever scores the most points is this years Summer Movie Pimp.

The list of movies coming out this summer:

April 29
- 13 Assassins (limited)
- Bride Flight (limited)
- Cave of Forgotten Dreams (limited)
- Dylan Dog: Dead of Night
- Earthwork (NY; LA release: May 20)
- Exporting Raymond (limited)
- Fast Five (conventional theaters and IMAX)
- Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil (3D/2D theaters)
- Prom
- Road to Nowhere (limited)
- Sympathy for Delicious (limited)

April TBA (only money earned after April 29th counts)
- Friends With Kids
- Mary, Mother of Christ

May 6
- The Beaver (limited; expands: May 20)
- Daydream Nation (limited)
- Hobo with a Shotgun (limited)
- Jumping the Broom (limited)
- Make Believe (limited)
- Mother's Day
- Octubre (October) (limited)
- Passion Play (limited)
- Something Borrowed
- There Be Dragons (limited)
- Thor (3D/2D theaters)
- The Vintner's Luck (limited)

May 11
- City of Life and Death (NY)

May 13
- The Big Bang (limited)
- Bridesmaids
- Cameraman: The Life and Work of Jack Cardiff (NY)
- Everything Must Go (limited)
- The First Grader
- Go For It! (limited)
- Hesher (limited)
- How to Live Forever (NY)
- Priest (3D/2D theaters)
- Skateland (limited)

May 20
- Beautiful Boy (limited)
- Midnight in Paris (limited)
- Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D/2D theaters and IMAX 3D)

May 26
- The Hangover Part II
- Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D/2D theaters and IMAX 3D)

May 27
- The Tree of Life (limited)

June 3
- Beginners
- The Last Mountain (limited)
- Submarine (limited)
- X-Men: First Class

June 10
- Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer
- Project Nim (limited)
- Super 8 (conventional and IMAX theaters)
- The Trip (limited)
- The Troll Hunter (limited)

June 15
- Kidnapped

June 17
- Green Lantern (3D/2D theaters)
- Homework (limited)
- Mr. Popper's Penguins

June 24
- A Better Life
- Bad Teacher
- Cars 2 (3D/2D theaters and IMAX 3D)


July 1
- Larry Crowne
- Monte Carlo
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon (3D/2D theaters and IMAX)

July 8
- Horrible Bosses
- One Day (limited)
- Zookeeper

July 15
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D/2D theaters and IMAX 3D)
- Life, Above All (NY, LA)
- Snow Flower and the Secret Fan (limited)
- Winnie the Pooh

July 18
- Sinbad The Fifth Voyage (limited)

July 22
- Another Earth (limited)
- Bellflower (limited)
- Captain America: The First Avenger (3D/2D theaters)
- Friends With Benefits
- The Future (limited)
- Sarah's Key (limited)

July 29
- All In (limited)
- Cowboys & Aliens
- Crazy Stupid Love
- The Guard
- The Smurfs

July TBA
- The Sleeping Beauty
- Terri (limited)

August 5
- The Change-Up
- The Darkest Hour (3D/2D theaters)
- Dirty Girl
- Rise of the Apes

August 12
- 30 Minutes or Less
- Don't Be Afraid of the Dark
- The Help

August 19
- Circumstance
- Conan the Barbarian (3D/2D theaters)
- Fright Night (3D/2D theaters)
- The Missing Piece (limited)
- Spy Kids 4: All the Time in the World (3D/2D theaters)

August 26
- Final Destination 5 (3D/2D theaters)
- Our Idiot Brother

August 31
- The Debt

August TBA (only August money counts)
- The Whistleblower
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#2
Bethany

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1 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D/2D theaters and IMAX 3D)
2 - Cars 2
3 - X-Men: First Class
4 - Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D/2D theaters and IMAX 3D)
5 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D/2D theaters and IMAX 3D)
6 - Cowboys Vs. Aliens
7 - Green Lantern (3D/2D theaters)
8 - Super 8 (conventional and IMAX theaters)
9 - Thor (3D/2D theaters)
10 - Captain America: The First Avenger

Honorable mentions
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon (3D/2D theaters and IMAX)
- Priest
- The Hangover Pt 2

Captain America will suffer because it's immediately after the HP2 release, which is going to be HUGE. Ditto The Hangover, it's the same weekend as Kung Fu Panda 2 and right after Pirates. Different genres, but it's not really a summer movie yet. Priest is jinxed b/c it's Paul Bettany + religion.

Damn, I didn't realize that all these movies were coming out this summer. I thought Pirates might be a Christmas movie, haha.

#3
Iceman

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1. Super 8
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
3. Cars 2
4. X-Men: First Class
5. Cowboys & Aliens
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
7. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
8. Green Lantern
9. The Hangover Part II
10. Captain America: The First Avenger

Tie breaker prediction for POTC: $297,927,354

#4
Mara Jade Skywalker

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Oooh, I like this game. I'll be back later!

#5
Foxglove

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I was getting ready to say the same thing. Finally, a Nightly game I have a prayer to win. I'm getting killed in the TV game. :lol:

#6
ShadowDog

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Yeah, I figure we'd close this off on April 28th so there's plenty of time. It's probably going to take me a week or two to assemble my list because I want to nail that one sleeper hit we get every summer that comes out of NOWHERE.

#7
The Choc

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Yeah, I figure we'd close this off on April 28th so there's plenty of time. It's probably going to take me a week or two to assemble my list because I want to nail that one sleeper hit we get every summer that comes out of NOWHERE.



1-Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2
2-Transformers: Dark of the Moon
3-Pirates of the Carribbean: On Stranger Tides
4-Cars 2
5-Kung Fu Panda 2
6-Hangover Part 2
7-X Men: First Class
8-Captain America: The First Avenger
9-Green Lantern
10-Super 8

#8
Brett

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Harry Potter
Pirates
Cars
Transformers
Super 8
Kung Fu Panda
X-Men
Captain America
Hangover
Green Lantern

#9
Kitster aka Boba Fett

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I don't know much about this sort of thing, but here are my wild guesses...

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
2. Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2
3. Pirates of the Carribbean: On Stranger Tides
4. Captain America: The First Avenger
5. Cars 2
6. The Hangover Part II
7. Kung Fu Panda 2
8. Green Lantern
9. X-Men: First Class
10. Thor

#10
Mara Jade Skywalker

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1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (I will be really really really surprised if this isn't the top-grossing movie of the year)
2. Cars 2 (kids and adults like Pixar)
3. Super 8 (Spielberg, Abrams, and aliens)
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 (kids like animated movies, and the first one seemed to be well-received)
5. Captain America: The First Avenger (superhero movie)
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (long-standing franchise; people like pirates and Johnny Depp)
7. X-Men: First Class (people like X-Men)
8. The Hangover Part II (people loved the first one)
9. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (even though the second one was panned, I still see people going to this one)
10. Thor (another superhero movie - could swap with Green Lantern)

Honorable mentions:
Green Lantern (another superhero moviel, but not sure if it'll beat all the other superhero movies)
Cowboys & Aliens (has Harrison Ford; people laughed at the trailers but I am super excited to see it)
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#11
NumberSix

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1. Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows 2
2. Cars 2
3. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
4. Kung Fu Panda 2
5. Super 8
6. Thor
7. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
8. Captain America: the First Avenger
9. The Hangover II
10. Cowboys & Aliens

Tiebreaker: $185,000,000.05 for POTCOST.
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#12
D-Ray Kenobi

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1. Harry Potter
2. Cars 2
3. Transformers 3
4. Hangover 2
5. Captain America
6. Super 8
7. Green Lantern
8. X Men
9. Pirates 4
10. Thor

I think the only movies that could potentially be "sleepers" are Bad Teacher or Fast Five. Those Fast and Furious movies have a big following, and seeing Cameron Diaz act ridiculously obscene could be a pull for a lot of older audiences.

As for my tiebreaker pick, I think Pirates 4 will barely break $100M at around $110M. Disney is a few years too late on cashing in on the Pirates of the Caribbean / Johnny Depp craze. It's still cool, but not as massively popular as it was even just a few years ago.

#13
TuskenRaider

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I'll chime in later with a real list, but I'm really suprised to see Harry Potter top the list for so many people here. Only 2 of the 6 films have crossed 300M in the states. Which is still a lot ,but overseas it's way bigger.

So I ask myself who can top 300M? I think Transformers COULD... but probably won't because of the bad taste from the last film. (but it crossed 400M, so who knows). I think the Hangover could. The first one made 277, so it's not a stretch to think that the second could get a few more.

I think the most likely candidate is Cars 2. I know the original Cars was hardly Pixars best performer. But it has generated SOOOOO much merchandise revenue it's ridiculous. I'm talking billions. Ask any kid 10 years old or younger if they know what Cars is, and almost every one of them will. So I see that translating into huge numbers.


And to think Pirates would barely cross 100M is ridiculous. 100M this year would put it among the ranks of Just Go With It and Gnomeo and Juliet. I know the Pirates crazed has cooled down a bit, but not that much. I think 250 for it is certainly in the cards.

#14
D-Ray Kenobi

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Normally, I'd agree with you. But this Summer is SOOOO crowded. I'll probably be proven wrong, but I personally think that Pirates could be the odd movie out.

#15
NumberSix

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As for my tiebreaker pick, I think Pirates 4 will barely break $100M at around $110M. Disney is a few years too late on cashing in on the Pirates of the Caribbean / Johnny Depp craze. It's still cool, but not as massively popular as it was even just a few years ago.


I'm not expecting a huge turnout for it compared to its competition, but the simultaneous 2D/3D release all but guarantees it'll reach $100M with ease, unless Captain Jack dies in the prologue and Penelope Cruz has to carry the rest of the movie alone.
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#16
caaraa

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Thanks all!!
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#17
The Choc

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Last year Robin Hood, Narnia and Yogi Bear all made 100 million. I cant see Pirates not making much, much more than that.

#18
D-Ray Kenobi

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Again, I will be totally unsurprised if I'm proven wrong. It's just a long shot guess.

#19
Wally Q

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I'll chime in later with a real list, but I'm really suprised to see Harry Potter top the list for so many people here. Only 2 of the 6 films have crossed 300M in the states. Which is still a lot ,but overseas it's way bigger.

So I ask myself who can top 300M? I think Transformers COULD... but probably won't because of the bad taste from the last film. (but it crossed 400M, so who knows). I think the Hangover could. The first one made 277, so it's not a stretch to think that the second could get a few more.

I think the most likely candidate is Cars 2. I know the original Cars was hardly Pixars best performer. But it has generated SOOOOO much merchandise revenue it's ridiculous. I'm talking billions. Ask any kid 10 years old or younger if they know what Cars is, and almost every one of them will. So I see that translating into huge numbers.


And to think Pirates would barely cross 100M is ridiculous. 100M this year would put it among the ranks of Just Go With It and Gnomeo and Juliet. I know the Pirates crazed has cooled down a bit, but not that much. I think 250 for it is certainly in the cards.

QFT

#20
Mara Jade Skywalker

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Regarding Harry Potter: It's the last movie. That's the reason it tops my list.

#21
Bethany

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The first part almost, almost made $300 million, and it came out in November.

The 2nd part is coming out in July, and doesn't really have any competition for 2 weeks until Captain America comes out - and the only real competition still in theaters is Transformers, but that comes out 2 weeks before. The studios are avoiding HP, and with good reason.

#22
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All the HP movies perform the exact same way. Huge opening weekend, and then a huge drop off the next week. I don't think that it's the last one will have any effect on the box office. It will still be as big as all the others, which is pretty good. But I don't think it's going to magically generate 100M more business then any of the others just because it's the last one.

#23
Wally Q

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I think what may drive up sales is the 3D additional surcharge. The first part wasn't converted in time but WB pushed to have this film finished in time for its release. I'm not guaranteeing record sales but I do see this one potentially hitting $300M.

I think Captain America may be the film to watch out for. I believe it could do Iron Man business if it connects with audiences; I really hate Transformers right now because I feel the patriotic mood of the July 4th weekend would have been a good boost for CA.

#24
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Here is my list

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 2 (Well, duh)
2. Cars 2
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. Thor
6. Green Lantern
7. The Hangover Part II
8. Super 8
9. Fast Five
10. Horrible Bosses (Just looks hilarious to me. Got a feeling it will be a sleeper)

Honorable Mention: Captain America - I just think by the time it rolls around there will be superhero burnout going on.

Tiebreaker: I have heard nothing but excitement and buzz about the POTC movie. I will guess 310M

#25
ShadowDog

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I can see both sides of the Harry Potter argument and I keep going back and forth on whether it'll be the top movie. Either way I end up picking, I wouldn't be surprised to see if go the other way.

I have no such problem with the 3rd Transformer movie which I think is going to be a HUGE bomb. Its not even going to smell my list.